Sunday, December 13, 2009

NFL Referee Statistics Before Week 14 of the 2009 Season (Through games of December 7, 2009)

Back after a few busy weeks off-line. More data and saving time by not going through all the categories. Post a comment if you'd like a focus on any of the categories.

Here are NFL referee statistics to use in week 14 (for the games that started on December 10 , 2009 because it includes data through week 13, games through December 7, 2009). This does not include the games from December 10-13.

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...
  • Highest: Bill Leavy and Jeff Triplette (73%), Peter Morelli, John Parry, Ron Winter (64%)
  • Lowest: Ed Hochuli (33%), Walt Anderson (36%), Jerome Boger (42%)
Total Points (adjusted and unadjusted). Unadjusted are raw total points. Adjusted compares the total points to the over/under line for the game.
  • Highest: Gene Steratore (50.4, +8.5), John Parry (47.2, +4.7), Mike Carey (47.1, +4.1)
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (34.7, -8.2); Walt Anderson (37.9, -6.2), Tony Corrente (39.9, -4.1)
Not much difference getween the unadjusted raw total points and the total points per game when accounting for the over/under line for the game.

Over/under % for the season so far: Gene Steratore (82% win rate with the over) versus Walt Anderson (18% win rate with the over). Even though Jerome Boger has a lower total points when averaged over the season, Jerome has a 29% win rate with the over so Walt Anderson's games are more consistently lower-scoring than people expect.

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 14.5, 133, 9.2, 37.9, 36%
Jerome Boger, 13.3, 102, 7.7, 34.7, 42%
Don Carey, 11.3, 86, 7.7, 41.3, 45%
Mike Carey, 11.8, 98, 8.3, 47.1, 55%
Carl Cheffers, 11.2, 98, 8.7, 43.8, 50%
Walt Coleman, 13.0, 109, 8.4, 45.8, 58%
Tony Corrente, 12.5, 100, 8.0, 39.9, 45%
Scott Green, 11.1, 96, 8.6, 46.8, 50%
Ed Hochuli, 13.5, 111, 8.2, 45.5, 33%
Bill Leavy, 10.6, 82, 7.7, 40.2, 73%
Terry McAulay, 11.7, 96, 8.2, 41.9, 55%
Peter Morelli, 9.7, 88, 9.0, 41.5, 64%
John Parry, 12.3, 100, 8.1, 47.2, 64%
Alberto Riveron, 11.0, 95, 8.6, 44.2, 55%
Gene Steratore, 10.3, 80, 7.7, 50.4, 55%
Jeff Triplette, 12.3, 95, 7.7, 45.6, 73%
Ron Winter, 14.1, 114, 8.1, 41.1, 64%