NFL: When Is The Win Nearly Assured? (Through Week 4)

When is a win in an NFL game virtually assured? Starting with week one, we'll look at theories for deciding whether a win is nearly assured.

Three theories: (1) first to score, (2) leading after one quarter, (3) leading at halftime:

(1) first to score : 37-22 (62.7%) (9-7; 14-2; 8-5; 6-8).
(2) leading after one quarter: 33-16 with 12 tied after 1Q (67.3%) (8-5-3; 12-1-3; 6-4-4; 7-6-2)
(3) leading at halftime: 41-15 with 5 tied at halftime (73.2%) (13-2-1; 11-4-1; 10-3-1; 7-6-2)

So far, looks like the win is not very clear, with a good likelihood if leading at halftime.