Saturday, October 18, 2008

NFL Referee Correlations between 2007 and 2008 seasons are limited so far

After only 6 weeks, let's take a look at correlations among the spread of NFL referees who worked the 2007 season and the 2008 season (through 6 weeks).

I'm looking for the correlation among the variations among the referees.  So if the number of accepted penalties varies by referees and certain ones call more every year than others, then there will be a correlation when we compare the variations among them.

So far, after just 6 weeks, there are not many strong correlations between the full 2007 season and the first 6 weeks of the 2008 season.

For total penalties, which usually has a strong correlation from one year to the next, it is only 0.021.  Total yards is 0.109.  Yards per penalty stands at -0.052.

Total points is -0.053.  Visiting team points is 0.280.  Home team points is -0.239.  The home team win rate is at 0.099.  Let's see how the correlations shape up as the season goes on.


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