Saturday, October 20, 2007

NFL Referee Statistics 2007 (Week Six)

NFL referee statistics for the 2007 season -- this report is after week six, through games of Monday, October 15:

Likely correlation between referees who calls lots of penalties and the rate that the home team wins the game. There is an even stronger correlation than usual after six weeks of how many accepted penalties there are for the referee and the rate that the home team wins the game. The correlation is a striking 0.496 right now. As an example, the three referees with the highest number of penalties per game have home winning rates of 75, 75, and 67%. While the four referees with the lowest number of penalties per game have home winning rates of only 50, 40, 20, and 0%

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. After 6 weeks, a comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and 2007 suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a positive 0.103 while the correlation for the home team's win rate is a fairly large positive 0.343!

Referees by penalties accepted per game:
The refs with the highest penalties accepted per game (with the home win-rate) are:
Walt Anderson (15.3, 75%)
Ron Winter (13.8, 75%)
Terry McAulay (13.7, 67%)
Bill Leavy (13.6, 40%)
(and the bottom of the list is)
David Coleman (9, 0%)
Jeff Triplette (8.4, 20%)
Pete Morelli (8.2, 40%)
Gerald Austin (8.2, 50%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate.
Barry Anderson (10, 100%)
John Parry (13.2, 80%)
Tony Corrente (12.2, 80%)
Ed Hochuli (11.6, 80%)
(and at the bottom of the list)
Bill Leavy (13.6, 40%)
Pete Morelli (8.2, 40%)
Jeff Triplette (8.4, 20%)
David Coleman (9.0, 0%)

Let's set aside "Barry Anderson" and "David Coleman" who might have been typos by the NFL statistical team. We are taking stats from the official NFL web reports.

So, if you are rooting for the home team, hope you have John Parry, Tony Corrente, or Ed Hochuli. And be unhappy if you have Jeff Triplette, Pete Morelli, or Bill Leavy.

Here are all the referees as listed on the official NFL game reports on their web site. The numbers in parentheses are penalties per game, penalty yards per game, and the home win-rate:

Barry Anderson (10, 50, 100%)
Walt Anderson (15.3, 110, 75%)
Gerald Austin (8.2, 73, 50%)
Jerome Boger (11.8, 95, 75%)
Mike Carey (12, 92, 50%)
Bill Carollo (11, 80, 60%)
David Coleman (9, 84, 0%)
Walt Coleman (12.3, 85, 75%)
Tony Corrente (12.2, 95, 80%)
Scott Green (10, 74, 50%)
Ed Hochuli (11.6, 97, 80%)
Bill Leavy (13.6, 109, 40%)
Terry McAulay (13.7, 112, 67%)
Pete Morelli (8.2, 63, 40%)
Larry Nemmers (11.2, 103, 50%)
John Parry (13.2, 97, 80%)
Gene Steratore (12.8, 99, 50%)
Jeff Triplette (8.4, 60, 20%)
Ron Winter (13.8, 100, 75%)


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