Saturday, November 10, 2007

NFL Referee Statistics (week 9, November 5, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 9 (including games through November 5, 2007):

The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins is still a striking positive of 0.425. If you take out two strange entries (Barry Anderson and David Coleman in week one), the correlation is even higher at 0.553! Refs who call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. After 8 weeks, a comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and 2007 suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a fairly positive 0.286 while the correlation for the home team's win rate is a very large positive 0.481!

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Walt Anderson takes the lead from Ron Winter! (Walt is 16.6, up 0.4 from last week while Ron is now 15.4, down 0.9 from last week's average!)
Walt Anderson (16.6, 71%)
Ron Winter (15.4, 57%)
Terry McAulay (14.1, 75%)
Mike Carey (13.9, 50%)

and at the bottom Gerald Austin takes over the bottom spot at 8.6 (down 0.4 from last week) while Peter Morelli falls into the middle of the pack at 9.6 (up 0.7 from last week):
Pete Morelli (9.6, 25%)
Jeff Triplette (9.3, 43%)
Scott Green (9.3, 38%)
Gerald Austin (8.6, 50%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Tony Corrente boosts his lead while Walt Anderson slips off the tie for the top.
Tony Corrente (13.6, 86%)
Terry McAulay (14.1, 75%)
Walt Anderson (16.6, 71%)
Jerome Boger (11.6, 71%)
and at the bottom, Pete Morelli extends his lead while Jeff Triplette falls back and Scott Green makes some headway toward the bottom of the list:
Bill Leavy (12.1, 43%)
Jeff Triplette (9.3, 43%)
Scott Green (9.3, 38%)
Pete Morelli (9.6, 25%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Tony Corrente, Terry McAulay, Walt Anderson, or Jerome Boger. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but be glad if you have Scott Green, Jeff Triplette, or Bill Leavy.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate separated by spaces:
Anderson, Walt 16.6 124 71%
Austin, Gerald 8.6 77 50%
Boger, Jerome 11.7 92 71%
Carey, Mike 13.9 104 50%
Carollo, Bill 10.4 81 63%
Coleman, Walt 10.3 72 67%
Corrente, Tony 13.6 113 86%
Green, Scott 9.3 70 38%
Hochuli, Ed 12.4 98 63%
Leavy, Bill 12.1 96 43%
McAulay, Terry 14.1 115 75%
Morelli, Pete 9.6 75 25%
Nemmers, Larry 11.0 98 50%
Parry, John 12.8 104 63%
Steratore, Gene 12.4 98 50%
Triplette, Jeff 9.3 71 43%
Winter, Ron 15.4 115 57%


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