Super Bowl 42: Giants and Patriots Trends By Game Statistics
Let us take a look at the types of statistics that appear in the games where the Giants and Patriots do the best. This does not help us predict a game before it starts, because we won't know how the game's actual statistics shape up until the game is underway. But maybe it will give you some interesting analysis to refer to during the game. In parentheses are the correlation figures for that statistic to either net points or Giants victories. No correlation figures for Patriots odds of winning because they won all their games.
Total penalties in the game: Giants do better with a large number of penalties called in the game. (0.168 by net points and 0.135 by win) while the Patriots do better with a lower number of penalties called in a game (-0.133 by net points).
Total penalty yards: little correlation.
Average penalty yards per penalty: we blogged before the semifinals about how the Giants typically do better in games where there are lower average yards per penalty. The Patriots have a similar trend. For the Giants, a negative trend (-0.161 by net points and -0.432 by win) while the Patriots also do better with a low average yards per penalty (-0.224 by net points).
Percent penalties called against the team: it seems like common sense that a team does better when the percent of penalties called against it is lower. But the Giants seem to be less affected by this factor (-0.171 by net points and -0.313 by wins) than the Patriots (-0.365 by net points).
Percent penalty yards called against the team: for both teams, they somewhat equally prefer to have a lower pecentage of penalty yards called against it. (Giants net points -0.383; Giants wins -0.493; Patriots net points -0.460).
Penalties against the team (regardless of how many total penalties are called): the Giants seem to do only a little bit worse as more penalties are called against it (-0.043 by net points and -0.152 by wins) while the Patriots do worse as it has more penalties against it (-0.289 by net points).
Penalty yards against the team: the Giants seem to do worse as more penalty yards are called against it (-0.238 by net points and -0.399 by wins) than the Patriots (-0.202 by net points).
Conclusion: We do not have a big enough sample to draw any strong conclusions. But if you are interested even in very weak suggestions, then you can say.
For the Giants, hope the game has a large number of penalties and a low number of penalty yards called against the Giants (although the number of penalties is not that important).
For the Patriots, hope the game has have a lower percent of the penalties called against the Patriots and that there is a low number of penalties against the Patriots.
Let's check in on these weak trends after we can look up the final Super Bowl statistics.
Total penalties in the game: Giants do better with a large number of penalties called in the game. (0.168 by net points and 0.135 by win) while the Patriots do better with a lower number of penalties called in a game (-0.133 by net points).
Total penalty yards: little correlation.
Average penalty yards per penalty: we blogged before the semifinals about how the Giants typically do better in games where there are lower average yards per penalty. The Patriots have a similar trend. For the Giants, a negative trend (-0.161 by net points and -0.432 by win) while the Patriots also do better with a low average yards per penalty (-0.224 by net points).
Percent penalties called against the team: it seems like common sense that a team does better when the percent of penalties called against it is lower. But the Giants seem to be less affected by this factor (-0.171 by net points and -0.313 by wins) than the Patriots (-0.365 by net points).
Percent penalty yards called against the team: for both teams, they somewhat equally prefer to have a lower pecentage of penalty yards called against it. (Giants net points -0.383; Giants wins -0.493; Patriots net points -0.460).
Penalties against the team (regardless of how many total penalties are called): the Giants seem to do only a little bit worse as more penalties are called against it (-0.043 by net points and -0.152 by wins) while the Patriots do worse as it has more penalties against it (-0.289 by net points).
Penalty yards against the team: the Giants seem to do worse as more penalty yards are called against it (-0.238 by net points and -0.399 by wins) than the Patriots (-0.202 by net points).
Conclusion: We do not have a big enough sample to draw any strong conclusions. But if you are interested even in very weak suggestions, then you can say.
For the Giants, hope the game has a large number of penalties and a low number of penalty yards called against the Giants (although the number of penalties is not that important).
For the Patriots, hope the game has have a lower percent of the penalties called against the Patriots and that there is a low number of penalties against the Patriots.
Let's check in on these weak trends after we can look up the final Super Bowl statistics.
posted by Rex at 9:55 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home