Sunday, February 10, 2008

Super Bowl 42: Giants and Patriots Postscript

Before Super Bowl 42, we took a look at what type of games the Giants and Patriots generally did well in. Now that we went out on a limb (not really, we didn't make any bold predictions), let's take a look at how the game turned out.

The Giants did better in games with a large number of penalties while the Patriots were the opposite. This didn't happen in the Super Bowl, though, because there were 9 total penalties (around 70% of regular season games had more penalties), so you would think this would favor the Patriots.

The Patriots do worse when a larger percent of penalties are called against them. This is not too surprising. But in any case, with 5 penalties out of 9 called against the Patriots, this did hold up in the Super Bowl (but not a very surprising fact).

The Patriots did not do that well when it had lots of penalties called against it (regardless of how many were called in total). The Patriots had 5 penalties, which was pretty much the median for them in the regular season, so this factor did not prove anything.

The Giants do a bit worse when they have a large number of penalty yards called against them (a bigger effect than the Patriots had). The Giants had 36 penalty yards against them in the Super Bowl. That was close to the median for them in the regular season, so this factor did not prove anything.

Before the game, we had said:
For the Giants, hope the game has a large number of penalties and a low number of penalty yards called against the Giants (although the number of penalties is not that important).

For the Patriots, hope the game has have a lower percent of the penalties called against the Patriots and that there is a low number of penalties against the Patriots.
Now that the game is over, these suggestions didn't really help much. One of them (number of penalties) did not really pan out while the other three didn't really get tested because the game was close to the median. Oh well, maybe next year we will have a bigger trend and a chance to test it out in the next Super Bowl!


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