Friday, September 04, 2009

Any Requests for the 2009 NFL Season?

Any requests or ideas for what to try to track for the upcoming 2009 NFL season for referees and their statistics?

With limited time, I can't track a ton of statistics, but I will try to track what I hope will be the most interesting and useful statistics for analysis. Let me know what ideas you have -- if I don't have time, maybe some other reader will pick up on your ideas.

Tracking referee statistics really becomes interesting during the regular season, not beforehand. The problem with looking at referee statistics while planning your fantasy football draft or projecting a team's season is that the NFL does not release the upcoming referee schedule for the year. So even if it turns out that your favorite running back will have an offense-favorable referee schedule, you won't know that when it's time to do your fantasy football draft or make your projections for the year.

When the season starts, I'll discuss some non-referee statistical analysis I've done on the past season, including the trend that the visiting team's offense is not as important for predicting the result of the game as other factors.

7 Comments:

Blogger David said...

I have been looking in vain for statistics on pass interference penalties. How many are called each season and what affect did the "new" five yard rules have on these penalties.

10:38 AM  
Blogger Rex said...

Good question -- but sorry but I'm not tracking specific penalties. Wish I had the time to cover that!

4:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can you track calls for "attempting unnatural acts for the purpose of drawing the offensive player offsides" as we saw called in the Titans/Jets week 3 game on 9/27/2009?

4:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The "attempting unnatural acts..." penalty may have been called in the Vikings/49ers game. (Sorry, NFL Sunday ticket overdose...)

4:52 PM  
Blogger 81Trucolors said...

Great site! Will you be posting refs stats this year like you did last year? I'm especially interested in the total points scored and home team win %. Thanks!

5:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey I was wondering if you ever track that :::there might be a bias as well towards favorites/underdogs or even better, an officiating crew that likes to keep games "close" and would thus provide very favorable situations for a large underdog to over-achieve!

2:45 AM  
Blogger Rex said...

Thanks for your suggestion. About uneven bias by some referees toward favorites more than other referees, I will have to look through my notes but I don't think I saw a correlation from season to season in differences among the referees.

Can you give some parameters to help crunch the numbers as far as keeping the score close when there is a major favorite? Would you say where the pointspread is more than a certain amount (10? 14?) and seeing how well the favorites did against the spread in those games? Then seeing if the distribution in the 2009 season matches up by referee to the distribution in the 2006, 2007, 2008 seasons?

3:27 PM  

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