Super Bowl XLIII (Cardinals-Steelers): Actual Penalties and Actual Total Points
Let's take a look at how well the Cardinals and Steelers did in the regular season when compared with certain penalty statistics in their games.
The Cardinals did better when they committed more penalties. This seems strange, but the numbers show a correlation. For all teams, there is a -0.033 correlation between the scoring margin to the number of penalties committed, but the Cardinals had a 0.359 correlation. For all teams, there is a -0.063 correlation between the won/loss result and penalties committed, but the Cardinals had a 0.426 correlation. Strange. The Steelers had a -0.061 correlation to scoring margin and 0.137 correlation to won/loss result. This could be how the Cardinals did better in games where the referees called more penalties.
The Cardinals did better in games where there were more penalties. The Cardinals show a correlation of doing better in games where the referees called more penalties (0.117 to scoring margin and 0.248 to won/loss result) while the Steelers had mixed results (-0.151 to scoring margin and 0.057 to won/loss result). The league-wide total was no correlation because in each game, half the teams win and half lose.
The Cardinals did better in lower-scoring games. The Cardinals did better when the actual total points in the game was lower: -0.470 correlation of actual total points to scoring margin and -0.450 correlation of actual total points to won/loss result. The Steelers had mixed results (0.228 to margin and -0.032 to won/loss result). Maybe the key is whether the Cardinals defense can keep the game low-scoring? (The Cardinals went 7-0 when their opponents scored 21 or less, 1-2 when their opponents scored 24 points, and 0-6 when their opponents scored 27 or more.)
If the regular season trends hold up, Cardinals fans should be happy if there are many penalties, if there are penalties against the Cardinals, and the game is low-scoring. Steelers fans should not care much because those details had little correlation with the Steelers during the regular season.
The Cardinals did better when they committed more penalties. This seems strange, but the numbers show a correlation. For all teams, there is a -0.033 correlation between the scoring margin to the number of penalties committed, but the Cardinals had a 0.359 correlation. For all teams, there is a -0.063 correlation between the won/loss result and penalties committed, but the Cardinals had a 0.426 correlation. Strange. The Steelers had a -0.061 correlation to scoring margin and 0.137 correlation to won/loss result. This could be how the Cardinals did better in games where the referees called more penalties.
The Cardinals did better in games where there were more penalties. The Cardinals show a correlation of doing better in games where the referees called more penalties (0.117 to scoring margin and 0.248 to won/loss result) while the Steelers had mixed results (-0.151 to scoring margin and 0.057 to won/loss result). The league-wide total was no correlation because in each game, half the teams win and half lose.
The Cardinals did better in lower-scoring games. The Cardinals did better when the actual total points in the game was lower: -0.470 correlation of actual total points to scoring margin and -0.450 correlation of actual total points to won/loss result. The Steelers had mixed results (0.228 to margin and -0.032 to won/loss result). Maybe the key is whether the Cardinals defense can keep the game low-scoring? (The Cardinals went 7-0 when their opponents scored 21 or less, 1-2 when their opponents scored 24 points, and 0-6 when their opponents scored 27 or more.)
If the regular season trends hold up, Cardinals fans should be happy if there are many penalties, if there are penalties against the Cardinals, and the game is low-scoring. Steelers fans should not care much because those details had little correlation with the Steelers during the regular season.
posted by Rex at 2:26 PM
3 Comments:
Here there was lot going on so if there was any detail to the flag thrown in the backfield on that 100 yard interception return...what was it?
Someone said they heard the ref say Facemasking...but it was clear that Harrison wasn't Facemasked and the flag was thrown well in advance of him being tackled - in fact, looked to me as if he was down just before crossing the line. It had appeared to me the Steelers jumped a bit (Timmons??) early coming on the blitz and a late off-side call was being made.
One imagines that the Cardinals are flagged (often) for motion or off-sides (Eagles Game)as opposed to personal fouls. Situations dictate how detrimental a penalty is. Rothlesburger's throw to nobody in the first half should have (at worst for the Cardinals) been off-setting), and at best a loss of down. Instead it was "ghost roughing" and fifteen yard gain for the Steelers ... who are not the Rams, the 9ers, the Seahawks, or the Bills.
I'm not sure how anyone could say that the more you get penalized the better you do. Correlation does not imply causation.
The Steelers clearly stole another Superbowl. I'm neither a Seahawks or Cardinals fan yet it is very clear that the officiating helped the Steelers get two undeserved Superbowl rings.
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