Saturday, December 23, 2006

Ongoing 2006 NFL referee statistics (Through 12/11)

This post covers our ongoing analysis of the 2006 season performance of NFL referees. Please post comments on the types of statistics you would like to see or any comments on the statistics we are already tracking.

Through week fifteen, December 18, 2006:
Ranking by penalties accepted, both teams:
Gene Steratore (14.8), Ron Winter (13.7), Tony Corrente
Peter Morelli (9.3), Walt Coleman (9.3), Bill Leavy
Wow, Peter Morelli's lead for lowest number of penalties accepted shrank dramatically in week 15. Now they are virtually tied.

Ranking by % penalty yardage accepted against visiting team
Gerry Austin (58%), Scott Green
Walt Coleman (43%),Gene Steratore
I am getting disenchanted with this statistic, because there is a negative correlation among the referees' % penalty yardage for visiting teams and the rate that the home team wins that referee's games. I would've hoped for a positive correlation, where a ref that helps the home team calls most of the penalty yards against the visitors. Oh well...

Ranking by home win-rate:
Bill Vinovich (73%), Mike Carey/Larry Nemmers (69%)
Walt Anderson (43%), Scott Green/Peter Morelli/Tony Corrente (46%)
I don't think anyone really believes that the referees are biased for or against home teams generally. But if you want to believe there is some unconscious bias, then watch Bill Vinovich's games and root for the home team.

After 4 weeks, the ranking (penalties accepted, both teams) was:
Mike Carey, Bill Vinovich, Tony Corrente, Larry Nemmers = top 4
Walt Anderson, Walt Coleman, Bill Leavy, Peter Morelli = bottom 4

In 2005: Bill Vinovich was #1 and Walt Anderson was last in total number of penalties accepted.

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