Saturday, November 17, 2007

NFL referee statistics (after week 10, November 17, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 9 (including games through November 12, 2007):

The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins is still a striking positive of 0.434. If you take out two strange entries (Barry Anderson and David Coleman in week one), the correlation is even higher at 0.612! Refs who call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. After 8 weeks, a comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and 2007 suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a fairly positive 0.283 while the correlation for the home team's win rate is a very large positive 0.418!

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
At the top, Walt extends his lead over Ron Winter but not much change in the standings:
Walt Anderson (16.6, 71%)
Ron Winter (15.0, 63%)
Terry McAulay (14.2, 67%)
Tony Corrente (13.9, 75%)

and at the bottom no major changes with Gerald Austin's lead slightly slipping:
Bill Carollo (10.2, 56%)
Pete Morelli (9.6, 25%)
Scott Green (9.0, 33%)
Gerald Austin (8.7, 56%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Tony Corrente's lead slides a little bit:
Tony Corrente (13.9, 75%)
Walt Anderson (16.6, 71%)
Walt Coleman (11.6, 71%)
Terry McAulay (14.2, 67%)
and at the bottom, Pete Morelli was idle and Scott Green is eating into his lead:
Bill Leavy (12.1, 43%)
Jeff Triplette (10.4, 38%)
Scott Green (9.0, 33%)
Pete Morelli (9.6, 25%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Tony Corrente, Walt Anderson, Walt Coleman, or Terry McAulay. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but be glad if you have Scott Green, Jeff Triplette, or Bill Leavy.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate separated by spaces:
Anderson, Barry 10.0 50 100%
Anderson, Walt 16.6 124 71%
Austin, Gerald 8.7 78 56%
Boger, Jerome 11.9 90 63%
Carey, Mike 13.8 103 44%
Carollo, Bill 10.2 78 56%
Coleman, David 9.0 84 0%
Coleman, Walt 11.6 81 71%
Corrente, Tony 13.9 109 75%
Green, Scott 9.0 74 33%
Hochuli, Ed 12.4 97 56%
Leavy, Bill 12.1 96 43%
McAulay, Terry 14.2 115 67%
Morelli, Pete 9.6 75 25%
Nemmers, Larry 11.3 97 56%
Parry, John 13.1 105 56%
Steratore, Gene 12.6 98 56%
Triplette, Jeff 10.4 82 38%
Winter, Ron 15.0 109 63%


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think your data shows anything conclusive concerning what I am perceiving as widespread NFL corruption.

Mike Carey is one I have watched significantly and I am of the opinion that this sort of corruption must be analyzed on a game to game basis. Films on Carey's "decision-making" need to be analysed throughout his career. The game fixing that I am perceiving seems wide spread and the fact that no one is inverstigating is disheartening. I DO NOT think that these "bad call" are random or accidental or home field-induced.

Please find tape of Saints/Houston and tell me how and begin learning how Carey and his ilk are vital to the wins/loses on the field.

Why not call a fumble under the pile when the Saints are about to score a touchdown? How can you overturn what you cannot see? Two interference noncalls that were obvious on short passes and a pushing off call against Colston on a key drive. The calls against the Saints killed every scoring drive and contributed single-handedly to the Houston victory.

Please feel free to call me a conspiracy theorist or crazy as I am getting used to hearing this by people who have absolutely no desire to examine what appears to me as a very corrupt league.

10:34 AM  

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