Saturday, January 17, 2009

Alberto Riveron Best For Favorites And Walt Coleman Best For Underdogs

Which referees are better for the favorites than others?

To look into this, I looked at how well the stronger team did in a refereeā€™s 2008 regular season games did. First, I will focus on the correlation between how much stronger the favorite was and whether the team won (regardless of the scoring margin, so this is focused on won-loss, not margin of victory or beating the spread). A strong predictor of which team is stronger is comparing the net scoring margin for the teams.

By crunching the number for the entire season, we come up with a ranking of the correlation between how much stronger the favorite is and the winning percentage for the favorite. That shows us which referees are better for favorites. Let me know your criticisms or comments on this approach!

The best referees for favorites are Alberto Riveron, Scott Green, Jeff Triplette, and Carl Cheffers.

If your team is an underdog when you look at the net scoring margin, then you want (in order of preference): Walt Coleman, Gene Steratore, John Parry, and Jerome Boger.

I am ranking them by how well the expected scoring margin correlated to which team won. Alberto Riveron was highest with 0.781 and Walt Coleman was lowest with 0.199. For games with all referees, the correlation was 0.512.

There is a big difference between Alberto Riveron and Walt Coleman. The team with the better scoring margin went 14-2 with Alberto Riveron, but only 9-6 with Walt Coleman and 7-8 with Gene Steratore.

For those who expect Walt Anderson to referee the Eagles-Cardinals game, he was 13th out of 17 with a correlation of only 0.395.


Post a Comment

<< Home