Sunday, January 18, 2009

Walt Anderson and the Eagles-Cardinals NFC Championship Game: Part Two

Several bloggers think that Walt Anderson (referee #66) will be the ref for the Eagles-Cardinals NFC Championship Game.

Let's take a look at some more statistics for his 2008 regular season.

The Eagles have a slightly better winning percentage than the Cardinals did in the regular season. Better record teams did better in Walt's games with a 0.399 correlation (10th of 17 refs) to which team won and a 0.220 correlation (14th of 17) to the scoring margin.

The Eagles have a better net scoring margin than the Cardinals, better by 3.9 points per game. Walt had little correlation between net scoring margin and the results of his games, though: 0.022 correlation (12th of 17) to which team won and -0.141 correlation (16th out of 17) to the scoring margin.

In another posting, I'll go into how there is an interesting trend through both halves of the 2008 NFL season: the most important factor to which team wins and the scoring margin is the home team's offense. Next important are pretty equal -- the visiting team's offense and the home team's defense. The least important factor is the visiting team's offense. Interesting details!
The Eagles had Walt in the 2008 season and lost 36-7 at Baltimore in week 12. The Cardinals did not have Walt.

Let's take a look at specific games for teams with a better winning percentage.

When the home team had a better record (other than the game Walt was doing), the home teams went 5-1. When the visiting team had a better record, the home teams went 4-4.


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