Predicting NFL Games: Visiting Team's Offenses Are Overrated
Although we focus on referee statistics, as long as we are logging data about the 2008 NFL season, we can look at other pieces of information, such as how to predict the results of NFL games regardless of what referee is covering the game.
Looking over the 2008 NFL season, we come up with a theory -- the strength of the visiting team's offense is overrated. You might take advantage of this by downgrading the importance of the visiting team's offense. If the visiting team has a great offense, that team might be a bit overrated. If the visiting team has a terrible offense, that team might be a bit underrated for that game.
Let's take a look at the 2008 NFL season. If we use points scored by the offense and points given up by the defense, it gives us a rough way to put a value on how good the team's offense and defense are. This rough statistic is not exact -- for example, it doesn't account for the strength of schedule -- but over the course of the 16-game season perhaps it evens out to a good degree.
We took a look at the correlation of the offense and the defense of the visiting teams and of the home teams to the final score and then to which team won (regardless of the scoring margin). In each case, we found that the biggest influence is the home team's offense. A bit further back is the strenth of each team's defense. And much further back is the strength of the visiting team's defense.
For example, in the 2008 NFL season, the correlation to the scoring margin was:
So the new theory is: the Visiting Team's Offense Is Overrated.
And you can take advantage of this by adjusting the traditional predictions when the visiting team's offense is particularly strong or particularly weak.
We can use this theory to modify other analyses, such as strength of schedule. We'll do that in another posting.
Looking over the 2008 NFL season, we come up with a theory -- the strength of the visiting team's offense is overrated. You might take advantage of this by downgrading the importance of the visiting team's offense. If the visiting team has a great offense, that team might be a bit overrated. If the visiting team has a terrible offense, that team might be a bit underrated for that game.
Let's take a look at the 2008 NFL season. If we use points scored by the offense and points given up by the defense, it gives us a rough way to put a value on how good the team's offense and defense are. This rough statistic is not exact -- for example, it doesn't account for the strength of schedule -- but over the course of the 16-game season perhaps it evens out to a good degree.
We took a look at the correlation of the offense and the defense of the visiting teams and of the home teams to the final score and then to which team won (regardless of the scoring margin). In each case, we found that the biggest influence is the home team's offense. A bit further back is the strenth of each team's defense. And much further back is the strength of the visiting team's defense.
For example, in the 2008 NFL season, the correlation to the scoring margin was:
- Home team's offense (0.375)
- Home team's defense (0.276)
- Visiting team's defense (0.207)
- Visiting team's offense (0.128)
So the new theory is: the Visiting Team's Offense Is Overrated.
And you can take advantage of this by adjusting the traditional predictions when the visiting team's offense is particularly strong or particularly weak.
We can use this theory to modify other analyses, such as strength of schedule. We'll do that in another posting.
posted by Rex at 5:00 PM
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