Sunday, October 11, 2009

NFL Referee Statistics before Week 5 (October 11, 2009)

Another week, more data -- NFL referee statistics to use in week 5 (use it for games starting October 11, 2009 because it includes data through week 4, games through October 5, 2009).

This is current as of October 6, 2009. [Note, made some corrections to Walt Anderson's data on 10/13/09 -- thanks to 81Trucolors for pointing this out!]

Remember, all of these statistics are not proof that any NFL referee is cheating. It is perfectly normal that some referees call a game slightly differently than others. This can be an unconscious tendency that differs between referees, not necessarily any intentional bias. It should be perfectly fine to discuss the variations between referees -- I am not questioning whether the referees are cheating! Also, NFL teams track referee tendencies already, so why not help NFL fans with the same tracking...

Total accepted penalties per game

  • Highest: Walt Anderson (18), Ed Hochuli (15), Scott Green (14.8)
  • Lowest: Alberto Riveron (9), Terry McAulay (9.7), Mike Carey (10.5)

Average yards per accepted penalty (this may help you figure out whether a specific crew calls a higher percentage of large-yardage penalties -- defense backs and wide receivers might be very interested in case this reflects pass interference calls downfield)

  • Highest: Walt Anderson (8.9), Peter Morelli (8.77), Ron Winter (8.74)
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (8.06), Carl Cheffers (7.41), Don Carey (7.46)

Total points scored -- raw (some referees tend to favor both teams' offenses rather than both teams' defenses, so more total points will be scored -- or do other things that tend to increase the total points scored). No adjustments for the teams playing.

  • Highest: Mike Carey (57), Walt Coleman (54), Alberto Riveron (53.8)
  • Lowest: Walt Anderson (28), Bill Leavy (31.5), Jerome Boger (32.3)

Total points scored -- adjusted (referees may tend to favor higher-scoring games more than others). These figures are adjusted by accommodating the over-under betting line, which is a pre-game prediction that takes account of the teams involved.

  • Highest: Mike Carey (+15.8), Gene Steratore (+14.6), Alberto Riveron (+11.6). So Mike Carey comes out the highest, while Gene Steratore goes up from 4th on the raw list to 2nd on the adjusted list.
  • Lowest: Peter Morelli (-8.8), Walt Anderson (-8) [corrected 10/13], Tony Corrente (-5.8). Tony Corrente moved from 6th lowest on the raw list to 3rd lowest on the adjusted list. Peter Morelli moved from 4th to 1st.

Home Team Net points -- adjusted (perhaps some referees favor home teams more and the home teams do better than expected, using the pre-game betting line as an unofficial estimate of how well the home teams were expected to do)

  • Highest: Tony Corrente (+7.4), Carl Cheffers (+6.7), Terry McAulay (+5.5)
  • Lowest: Jeff Triplette (-21), Ed Hochuli (-16.6), Jerome Boger (-14.9)

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...

  • Highest: Bill Leavy and Mike Carey (100%), Tony Corrente, Ron Winter, Scott Green, Gene Steratore (75%)
  • Lowest: Ed Hochuli (25%), Walt Anderson [corrected 10/13], Jeff Triplette, Carl Cheffers (33%)

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 18.0, 160, 8.9, 28, 33% (corrected 10/13/09)

Jerome Boger, 13.0, 92, 7.06, 32.3, 50%

Don Carey, 12.0, 90, 7.46, 40.8, 50%

Mike Carey, 10.5, 85, 8.07, 57.0, 100%

Carl Cheffers, 11.3, 84, 7.41, 44.0, 33%

Walt Coleman, 11.0, 86, 7.82, 54.0, 50%

Tony Corrente, 12.5, 101, 8.08, 36.5, 75%

Scott Green, 14.8, 126, 8.53, 39.0, 75%

Ed Hochuli, 15.0, 114, 7.60, 35.3, 25%

Bill Leavy, 10.8, 84, 7.84, 31.5, 100%

Terry McAulay, 9.7, 77, 8.00, 42.3, 67%

Peter Morelli, 11.7, 102, 8.77, 34.0, 67%

John Parry, 14.3, 119, 8.33, 42.3, 67%

Alberto Riveron, 9.0, 69, 7.67, 53.8, 50%

Gene Steratore, 11.0, 84, 7.64, 51.5, 75%

Jeff Triplette, 11.0, 90, 8.18, 46.0, 33%

Ron Winter, 13.3, 116, 8.74, 48.0, 75%


Blogger 81Trucolors said...

Great stats! What about Bill Carollo and Bill Leavy?

1:57 PM  
Blogger 81Trucolors said...

I'm not sure I understand these stats. Walt Anderson's Home Team Win Rate is 0% but he refed the Broncos/Cowboys game which the Broncos won. Am I missing something?

2:01 PM  
Blogger Rex said...

Thank you for your comments!

Bill Carollo retired so he's not in the 2009 NFL referee statistics. Bill Leavy is there, alphabetized by last name.

Thank you for pointing out that Walt Anderson's home team win rate should be 33% after 4 weeks, not 0%. Turns out that I did not include that single game from week 4 in the analysis. Where is the quality control?! I'll try to double-check the total number of games each week to make sure I don't have similar errors. Ugh, where are some interns when I need them? Sorry for the mistake and thanks again for pointing it out.

9:16 PM  
Blogger GnightMoon said...

Good stuff Rex keep it coming.

12:22 AM  

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