Sunday, January 24, 2010

AFC Conference Championship Referee: Tony Corrente (Jets-Colts Game)

For the 2009 AFC Conference Championship game in the NFL playoffs, Tony Corrente is handling the game between the New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts. Let's look at how Tony's crew did during the regular season compared to all 17 referee crews.
  • 6th in total accepted penalties per game (12.6)
  • 3rd in total accepted penalty yards per game (105) so they are not afraid to call penalties often
  • 7th in average yards per penalty (8.3) so not necessarily the crew that would call big penalties the most often
  • 16th in percent penalties called against the visiting team (46%) and penalty yards against the visiting team (44%), so seems favorable to the Jets on this point. (Walt Anderson was 17th.)
  • 14th in total points (40.5) so might be a lower scoring game than people expect
  • 15th in points compared with the over/under line (-3.6)
  • 17th in over/under (the over only won 23% in the regular season)
  • 14th in home win rate (47%) so another good sign for the Jets
Looks like Tony's crew calls a decent number of penalties and the games are lower scoring than people expect, both on average and for the over/under record during the season. Also, the home team did not do very well in the games he covered during the season (but as a warning, it's not clear if home-win rate is a statistic that correlates across seasons by referee).

Home teams went 6-9 against the spread in Tony's games during the regular season. Good sign for the Jets.

The Colts won in week 1 in one of Tony's games, beating the Jaguars 14-12 in a home game. The over/under line was around 45 so a bet on the under would have won. Also, the Colts were favored by 6.5 points, so the home team did not do as well as expected (despite still winning). The Jets did not play any games under Tony in 2009. So by track record, the Colts did not do that well in one of Tony's games but they have more experience with Tony's crew this season.

Of course, the key will be how the players play, not the referees -- but you can use these statistics to enhance your viewing experience. Post any comments, insights, or questions!

Sunday, January 03, 2010

NFL Referee Statistics Before Week 17 of the 2009 NFL Season

More data and saving time by not going through all the categories. Post a comment if you'd like a focus on any of the categories.

Here are NFL referee statistics to use in week 17 (for the games that are on Sunday, January 3, 2010) because it includes data through week 16 or games through December 28, 2009.

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...
  • Highest: Bill Leavy and Jeff Triplette (79%), Peter Morelli (64%)
  • Lowest: Walt Anderson (29%), Ed Hochuli (36%), Terry McAulay, Tony Corrente, Carl Cheffers, Jerome Boger (43%)
Total Points (adjusted and unadjusted). Unadjusted are raw total points. Adjusted compares the total points to the over/under line for the game.
  • Highest: Gene Steratore (52.3, +10.2), John Parry (49.4, +7.1), Mike Carey (46.8, +3.6)
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (34.7, -8.7), Ron Winter (38.2, -5.0), Walt Anderson (39.7, -3.6)
Not much difference between the unadjusted raw total points and the total points per game when accounting for the over/under line for the game.

Over/under % for the season so far: Gene Steratore (79% win rate with the over) versus Tony Corrente and Jerome Boger (25% win rate with the over).

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson (13.9, 124, 8.9, 39.7, 29%)
Jerome Boger (13.3, 101, 7.6, 34.7, 43%)
Don Carey (10.6, 84, 8.0, 41.9, 57%)
Mike Carey (12.6, 104, 8.2, 45.8, 43%)
Carl Cheffers (11.4, 97, 8.5, 43.3, 43%)
Walt Coleman (12.1, 102, 8.4, 45.9, 53%)
Tony Corrente (12.8, 108, 8.4, 41.0, 43%)
Scott Green (11.5, 97, 8.4, 46.8, 47%)
Ed Hochuli (12.9, 104, 8.0, 43.0, 36%)
Bill Leavy (10.6, 82, 7.7, 39.9, 79%)
Terry McAulay (11.4, 95, 8.3, 41.1, 43%)
Peter Morelli (10.3, 92, 9.0, 41.0, 64%)
John Parry (12.4, 99, 8.0, 49.4, 50%)
Alberto Riveron (10.9, 92, 8.5, 42.3, 50%)
Gene Steratore (9.8, 79, 8.0, 52.3, 50%)
Jeff Triplette (13.1, 105, 8.0, 45.9, 79%)
Ron Winter (13.0, 106, 8.2, 38.2, 57%)