Saturday, February 06, 2010

NFL Referees for Super Bowl XLIV: February 2010 Saints-Colts

Some analysis of the NFL referees for Super Bowl XLIV between the Saints and the Colts on February 7, 2010. Let's focus on the Super Bowl referee Scott Green, even though the Super Bowl has an all-star crew so Scott Green's regular season statistics (which are based on his usual crew) will not directly apply to the members of the Super Bowl crew.

Total penalties: 11th of 17 at 11.4 accepted penalties per game. Looking at the entire Super Bowl crew, none of them worked on the crews that had the 5 highest accepted penalties per game so my prediction is there will be a slightly below average number of penalties in the Super Bowl.

Total penalty yards: 8th of 17 at 99 penalty yards per game. Looking at the entire crew, it trends toward a lower number of penalty yards per game. Other than Scott Green, they were 3rd, 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, and 17th out of 17.

Yards per penalty: 3rd of 17 at 8.7 yards per penalty. My prediction is there could be some high-yardage penalties, although not too many penalties. Other than Scott Green, the crew was 1st, 5th, 7th, 11th, 13th, and 15th out of 17.

Total points scored: 3rd of 17 at 48.1 yards per game. Hard to tell if it would be high-scoring because Scott Green suggests it would be high-scoring at 3rd out of 17, but the crew is spread out having worked on crews that were 1st, 7th, 9th, 11th, 12th, and 14th out of 17 during the regular season in total points scored.

Points scored compared with the over-under: 3rd of 17 at +5.3 per game. Think of this as the adjusted total points scored, accounting for what people expected to be scored in the game. This is similar to total points scored but if you looked only at the referees and nothing else (a dangerous approach), I would tend to bet on the over for the game. The crew worked during the regular season on crews that were 1st, 7th, 8th, 11th, 12th, and 15th in the regular season.

Over/under percentage win with the over: 4th of 17 at 63%. Again, I would tend to bet on the over for this game if all you looked at was the referee crew. The working crew for the regular season was on the 1st, 6th, 7th, 11th, 14th, and 17th crews so it was quite evenly-distributed.

Home team win rate: 5th of 17 at 63%. But this probably is irrelevant because the Super Bowl does not really have a true home team. The other crew is widely distributed, having worked on the 1st, 3rd, 8th, 11th, 14th, and 15th crews in the regular season for home team win rate.


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