Saturday, October 24, 2009

NFL Referee Statistics before Week 7 (before October 25, 2009)

Yet more data, crunched just for you. NFL referee statistics to use in week 7 (use it for games starting October 25, 2009 because it includes data through week 6, games through October 19, 2009).

Give me some feedback in the comments -- any of these categories you don't care about? Does you find the data dump at the end helpful or not worth it every week?

This is current as of October 20, 2009.

Total accepted penalties per game
  • Highest: Walt Anderson (15.6), Ron Winter (14.6), Ed Hochuli (14.5) [no changes from the previous week]
  • Lowest: Alberto Riveron (10), Mike Carey (10.2), Bill Leavy (10.8) [Carl Cheffers falls from 2nd to 4th]

Average yards per accepted penalty (this may help you figure out whether a specific crew calls a higher percentage of large-yardage penalties -- defense backs and wide receivers might be very interested in case this reflects pass interference calls downfield)

  • Highest: Peter Morelli (9.5), Alberto Riveron (8.9), Walt Anderson (8.9) [no changes]
  • Lowest: Walt Coleman (7.3), Jerome Boger (7.4),Jeff Triplette (7.7) [Boger falls from 1st to 2nd]

Total points scored -- raw (some referees tend to favor both teams' offenses rather than both teams' defenses, so more total points will be scored -- or do other things that tend to increase the total points scored). No adjustments for the teams playing.

  • Highest: Mike Carey (58.4), Alberto Riveron (54.6), Gene Steratore (53) [no changes]
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (27.36), Walt Anderson (33), Bill Leavy (34.2) [no changes]

Total points scored -- adjusted (referees may tend to favor higher-scoring games more than others). These figures are adjusted by accommodating the over-under betting line, which is a pre-game prediction that takes account of the teams involved.

  • Highest: Mike Carey (+14.4), Gene Steratore (+12.7), Alberto Riveron (+12.7) [Steratore goes from 3rd to 2nd]
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (-14.5), Walt Anderson (-10.2), Bill Leavy (-8.2) [Boger goes from 2nd to 1st]

Home Team Net points -- adjusted (perhaps some referees favor home teams more and the home teams do better than expected, using the pre-game betting line as an unofficial estimate of how well the home teams were expected to do)

  • Highest: Gene Steratore (+8.5), John Parry (+5.8), Scott Green (+5.7) [big changes with Steratore rocketing up to the top]
  • Lowest: Ed Hochuli (-7.1), Walt Anderson (-6.1), Jeff Triplette (-4.6) [much closer race and Triplette creeps into the top 3]

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...

  • Highest: Bill Leavy, Mike Carey, Gene Steratore, Terry McAulay (80%)
  • Lowest: Ed Hochuli (33%), Walt Anderson, Don Carey, Carl Cheffers (40%)

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 15.6, 138, 8.9, 33.0, 40%
Jerome Boger, 14.5, 107, 7.4, 27.3, 50%
Don Carey, 12.0, 97, 8.1, 42.2, 40%
Mike Carey, 10.2, 86, 8.4, 58.4, 80%
Carl Cheffers, 10.8, 90, 8.3, 39.8, 40%
Walt Coleman, 12.5, 92, 7.3, 47.0, 50%
Tony Corrente, 12.2, 98, 8.0, 35.8, 67%
Scott Green, 12.8, 113, 8.8, 42.3, 67%
Ed Hochuli, 14.5, 124, 8.6, 44.0, 33%
Bill Leavy, 10.8, 88, 8.2, 34.2, 80%
Terry McAulay, 11.6, 102, 8.8, 41.8, 80%
Peter Morelli, 11.6, 110, 9.5, 35.8, 60%
John Parry, 12.4, 106, 8.6, 45.4, 60%
Alberto Riveron, 10.0, 89, 8.9, 54.6, 60%
Gene Steratore, 11.2, 86, 7.7, 53.0, 80%
Jeff Triplette, 11.8, 90, 7.7, 46.4, 60%
Ron Winter, 14.6, 121, 8.3, 47.6, 60%

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