Saturday, November 14, 2009

NFL Referee Statistics Before Week 10 (through Week 9, 11/9/09)

More data, but saving time by not going through all the categories Post a comment if you'd like a focus on any of the categories.

Here are NFL referee statistics to use in week 10 (use it for games starting November 12, 2009 because it includes data through week 9, games through November 9, 2009). This does not include the Thursday game on November 12.

I've been looking at over/under rates for correlations. Initial analysis -- no clear correlation for every season to the very next season but looking into potential correlations over a broader time period and by comparing the first half and the second half of the same season.

This is current as of November 11, 2009.

Home Team Win Rate
(the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...
  • Highest: Mike Carey and Scott Green (75%); Bill Leavy, Terry McAulay, and Jeff Triplette (71%)
  • Lowest: Don Carey (25%); Ed Hochuli and Carl Cheffers (38%)
Total Points (adjusted and unadjusted). Unadjusted are raw total points. Adjusted compares the total points to the over/under line for the game.
  • Highest: Mike Carey (54.5, +10.1); John Parry (51.3, +9.6); Gene Steratore (49.1, +9.5)
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (32.6, -10.1); Bill Leavy (37.1, -4.5); Walt Anderson (37.3, -6.6)
So Bill Leavy has lower scoring games but when you account for the over/under line, Walt Anderson averages lower than expected total points per game. But if you look for over/under rate, as opposed to averages over the season, the referees who more often have the "under" are Bill Leavy, Tony Corrente, and Walt Anderson (29%) with Jerome Boger and Peter Morelli right behind at (31%). On the high side, the top three in average total points are grouped at the top in over/under rate at 86-88%.

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 14.1, 126, 8.9, 37.3, 43%
Jerome Boger, 14.3, 107, 7.5, 32.6, 50%
Don Carey, 11.3, 89, 7.9, 42.3, 25%
Mike Carey, 11.1, 95, 8.6, 54.5, 75%
Carl Cheffers, 10.9, 91, 8.4, 45.6, 38%
Walt Coleman, 13.5, 104, 7.7, 44.4, 50%
Tony Corrente, 11.7, 94, 8.0, 39.9, 57%
Scott Green, 12.6, 106, 8.4, 45.3, 75%
Ed Hochuli, 13.8, 117, 8.5, 47.3, 38%
Bill Leavy, 11.1, 87, 7.8, 37.1, 71%
Terry McAulay, 11.6, 95, 8.2, 39.7, 71%
Peter Morelli, 10.9, 93, 8.6, 41.5, 63%
John Parry, 13.0, 105, 8.1, 51.3, 57%
Alberto Riveron, 10.6, 90, 8.5, 46.8, 63%
Gene Steratore, 10.0, 78, 7.8, 49.1, 57%
Jeff Triplette, 12.4, 98, 7.9, 47.3, 71%
Ron Winter, 14.6, 117, 8.0, 44.6, 63%

2 Comments:

Blogger Little Red Riding Hood said...

great!!

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