Thursday, November 22, 2007

NFL Referee Statistics 2007 (after week 11, November 19, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 11 (including games through November 19, 2007):

We finally get rid of what we are confident are errors in the NFL's official gamebook. The NFL incorrectly listed "Barry Anderson" and "David Coleman" as referees in weeks 1 and 2, but we put those phantom names to rest now and reassign those games to the referees we believe really handled those games.

The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins is still a striking positive of 0.525. Refs who call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. After 8 weeks, a comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and 2007 suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a fairly positive 0.301 while the correlation for the home team's win rate is a very large positive 0.461!

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
At the top, with a 22-penalty game, Ron Winter takes over top spot from Walt:
Ron Winter (15.8, 56%)
Walt Anderson (15.1, 78%)
Tony Corrente (13.8, 67%)
Terry McAulay (13.5, 70%)

and at the bottom no major changes with Gerald's lead growing very slightly from 0.3 to 0.4:
Pete Morelli (10.1, 22%)
Bill Carollo (10.1, 50%)
Scott Green (9.3, 40%)
Gerald Austin (8.9, 60%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Walt Anderson takes over the top spot:
Walt Anderson (15.1, 78%)
Terry McAulay (13.5, 70%)
Tony Corrente (13.8, 67%)
Jerome Boger (11.3, 67%)
and at the bottom, Pete Morelli famously extended his lead in the crazy Cleveland Browns overtime victory while visiting the Baltimore Ravens:
Jeff Triplette (10.8, 44%)
Bill Leavy (12.1, 43%)
Scott Green (9.3, 40%)
Pete Morelli (10.1, 22%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Walt Anderson, Terry McAulay, Tony Corrente, or Jerome Boger. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but be glad if you have Scott Green, Jeff Triplette, or Bill Leavy.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate separated by spaces:
Anderson, Walt 15.1 117 78%
Austin, Gerald 8.9 82 60%
Boger, Jerome 11.3 86 67%
Carey, Mike 13.1 98 50%
Carollo, Bill 10.1 77 50%
Coleman, Walt 11.9 89 56%
Corrente, Tony 13.8 107 67%
Green, Scott 9.3 79 40%
Hochuli, Ed 12.2 93 50%
Leavy, Bill 12.1 96 43%
McAulay, Terry 13.5 108 70%
Morelli, Pete 10.1 80 22%
Nemmers, Larry 11.1 95 60%
Parry, John 12.6 100 60%
Steratore, Gene 12.3 98 60%
Triplette, Jeff 10.8 82 44%
Winter, Ron 15.8 117 56%


Post a Comment

<< Home