Saturday, November 01, 2008

NFL Referee Statistics: Net Total Points Per Game

After 8 weeks (on 11/1/2008, just before Week 9 begins), let's take a look at which referees have the highest-scoring games compared to what you would expect from the particular teams on that referee's schedule. Just as team statistics include adjustments for the strength of the opponent, let's adjust the referee statistics by the strength of the two teams involved.

This way, if a referee has a schedule packed with high-scoring teams, we can filter that out in seeing whether his games are higher scoring than usual.

Here we go!

Net Total Points (with team adjustments) as of 11/1/2008:
Ron Winter (+5.4), 51.4 raw total points
Peter Morelli (+4.5), 51.3
Ed Hochuli (+4.3), 47.6
Carl Cheffers (+3.7), 47.5
Terry McAulay, (+3), 46.7
Bill Leavy (+2.9), 47.7

referees where you might consider taking the under if you bet the over/under for total points:

Walt Anderson (-5.5), 38.3
Gene Steratore (-5.2), 38.5
Jeff Triplette (-3.2), 41.9
Tony Corrente (-3.0), 41.1
John Parry (-1.7), 42.4

When we account for team adjustments, the top two remain the same but Bill Leavy falls from third in raw total points to sixth in net total points. This is because three other referees that sneak ahead of him in net total points covered games with teams that overall had lower-scoring games than the average.

Looking at the bottom, the bottom two remain the same but Jeff Triplette leaps from 5th-lowest in raw total points to third-lowest in net total points. This is a combination of how his teams had slightly more than usual total expected points (45.1) and Tony Corrente (44.2) and William Carollo (43) had slightly lower-scoring teams in their games.

No major or drastic differences, though, for the rankings between raw total points and net as compared to the teams involved.


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