Bill Carollo: Baltimore Ravens - Pittsburgh Steelers AFC Championship Game
Several bloggers and newspapers report that Bill Carollo is scheduled to be the lead referee for the AFC Championship Game between the Ravens and the Steelers. It will be a mixture of crews, so analysis of Bill in the regular season will not apply as much as it would if it were his regular crew. Still, let's take a look at Bill's 2008 NFL regular season.
Raw statistics: 9.8 penalties per game (16th of 17 refs), 77 penalty yards (14th), 7.9 yards per penalty (8th), 53% penalties against visiting team (3rd), 55% penalty yards against visitors (2nd), 39.3 total points scored (17th and last), 18.9 points by visiting teams (13th), 20.3 points by home teams (15th), home teams won 50% (tied for 12th and 13th).
So Bill had the lowest scoring games in the regular season and called some of the least number of penalties per game.
Let's take a quick look at how well favorites do with Bill. If you define favorites as the team with the better net points per game, Bill comes out in the middle of the pack with a correlation of 0.430 (9th of 17) to the winning team (regardless of the final score) and 0.562 (5th) to the scoring margin at the end of the game. The Ravens had a slightly better scoring margin in the regular season than the Steelers.
If you define favorites as the team with the better won-loss record in the regular season, Bill comes out with a slight correlation of 0.114 (11th) to the winning team and some correlation of 0.236 (7th) to the scoring margin at the end of the game. The Steelers had a slightly better won-loss record in the regular season than the Ravens.
Raw statistics: 9.8 penalties per game (16th of 17 refs), 77 penalty yards (14th), 7.9 yards per penalty (8th), 53% penalties against visiting team (3rd), 55% penalty yards against visitors (2nd), 39.3 total points scored (17th and last), 18.9 points by visiting teams (13th), 20.3 points by home teams (15th), home teams won 50% (tied for 12th and 13th).
So Bill had the lowest scoring games in the regular season and called some of the least number of penalties per game.
Let's take a quick look at how well favorites do with Bill. If you define favorites as the team with the better net points per game, Bill comes out in the middle of the pack with a correlation of 0.430 (9th of 17) to the winning team (regardless of the final score) and 0.562 (5th) to the scoring margin at the end of the game. The Ravens had a slightly better scoring margin in the regular season than the Steelers.
If you define favorites as the team with the better won-loss record in the regular season, Bill comes out with a slight correlation of 0.114 (11th) to the winning team and some correlation of 0.236 (7th) to the scoring margin at the end of the game. The Steelers had a slightly better won-loss record in the regular season than the Ravens.
posted by Rex at 2:51 PM
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