Saturday, October 17, 2009

NFL Referee Statistics Before Week 6 (as of October 17)

More data! NFL referee statistics to use in week 6 (use it for games starting October 18, 2009 because it includes data through week 5, games through October 12, 2009).

This is current as of October 12, 2009.

Total accepted penalties per game
  • Highest: Walt Anderson (17.5), Ron Winter (14.6), Ed Hochuli (14.4)
  • Lowest: Alberto Riveron (10), Carl Cheffers (10.3), Mike Carey (10.5)

Average yards per accepted penalty (this may help you figure out whether a specific crew calls a higher percentage of large-yardage penalties -- defense backs and wide receivers might be very interested in case this reflects pass interference calls downfield)

  • Highest: Peter Morelli (9.6), Alberto Riveron (8.9), Walt Anderson (8.8)
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (6.9), Walt Coleman (7.4), Gene Steratore (7.6)

Total points scored -- raw (some referees tend to favor both teams' offenses rather than both teams' defenses, so more total points will be scored -- or do other things that tend to increase the total points scored). No adjustments for the teams playing.

  • Highest: Mike Carey (57), Alberto Riveron (54.6), Gene Steratore (51.5)
  • Lowest: Jerome Boger (27.6), Walt Anderson (31), Bill Leavy (31.5)

Total points scored -- adjusted (referees may tend to favor higher-scoring games more than others). These figures are adjusted by accommodating the over-under betting line, which is a pre-game prediction that takes account of the teams involved.

  • Highest: Mike Carey (+13.4), Alberto Riveron (+12.7), Gene Steratore (+10.6)
  • Lowest: Walt Anderson (-13.6), Jerome Boger (-12.9), Bill Leavy (-10.8)

Home Team Net points -- adjusted (perhaps some referees favor home teams more and the home teams do better than expected, using the pre-game betting line as an unofficial estimate of how well the home teams were expected to do)

  • Highest: Scott Green (+9.7), Carl Cheffers (+8.8), John Parry (+8.3)
  • Lowest: Ed Hochuli (-12), Walt Anderson (-7.4), Jerome Boger (-6.5)

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...

  • Highest: Bill Leavy and Mike Carey (100%), Scott Green and Tony Corrente (80%)
  • Lowest: Ed Hochuli (20%), Walt Anderson (25%), Jerome Boger and Don Carey (40%)

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 17.5, 154, 8.80, 31.0, 25%
Jerome Boger, 13.6, 94, 6.93, 27.6, 40%
Don Carey, 12.0, 97, 8.07, 42.2, 40%
Mike Carey, 10.5, 85, 8.07, 57.0, 100%
Carl Cheffers, 10.3, 80, 7.76, 42.3, 50%
Walt Coleman, 10.6, 78, 7.38, 50.6, 60%
Tony Corrente, 12.6, 99, 7.89, 39.0, 80%
Scott Green, 13.8, 117, 8.49, 39.4, 80%
Ed Hochuli, 14.4, 116, 8.07, 37.8, 20%
Bill Leavy, 10.8, 84, 7.84, 31.5, 100%
Terry McAulay, 10.8, 93, 8.67, 43.5, 75%
Peter Morelli, 12.8, 122, 9.59, 39.3, 50%
John Parry, 13.5, 116, 8.56, 44.5, 75%
Alberto Riveron, 10.0, 89, 8.88, 54.6, 60%
Gene Steratore, 11.0, 84, 7.64, 51.5, 75%
Jeff Triplette, 12.5, 96, 7.70, 47.3, 50%
Ron Winter, 14.6, 121, 8.26, 47.6, 60%

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