Saturday, December 08, 2007

NFL Referee Statistics (after week 13, through December 3, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 13 (including games through December 3, 2007):

Week 13 was unusual for a few reasons -- many referees went somewhat against the trend for home team wins and penalties called for the season. Let's take a look:

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins dropped by quite a bit from 0.449 down to 0.278! Refs who generally call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. A comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and the 2007 season so far suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a fairly positive at 0.269 (but down from 0.309) while the correlation for the home team's win rate took a big drop this week and is now a somewhat positive 0.249 (a big drop from last week's 0.393!)

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron's comfortable lead starts to slip a little bit but is still fairly comfortable:
Ron Winter (15.4, 45%)
Walt Anderson (14.7, 64%)
Tony Corrente (13.2, 64%)
Terry McAulay (13.1, 75%)

and at the bottom no major changes:
Scott Green (10.3, 42%)
Bill Carollo (10.2, 58%)
Pete Morelli (10.0, 36%)
Gerald Austin (8.7, 50%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay takes a comfortable lead at the top with a logjam below:
Terry McAulay (13.1, 75%)
John Parry (12.9, 67%)
Gene Steratore (11.8, 67%)
Larry Nemmers (10.9, 67%)

And at the bottom, a home team for the second straight week actually won a game that Pete Morelli covered! In Pete's games the home team won the first two games this season, lost the next seven(!) and now have won the last two. Scott Green had a chance to take over the bottom spot but the home team won in his game, also. Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams. The order of the universe is still intact, it seems.
Bill Leavy (12.1, 43%)
Mike Carey (12.3, 43%)
Scott Green (10.3, 42%)
Pete Morelli (10.6, 36%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Gene Steratore, or Larry Nemmers. If you like the visiting team, still hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Scott Green, Bill Leavy, and Mike Carey. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (14.7, 111, 64%)
Austin, Gerald (8.7, 79, 50%)
Boger, Jerome (12.1, 94, 64%)
Carey, Mike (12.3, 94, 42%)
Carollo, Bill (10.2, 74, 58%)
Coleman, Walt (11.7, 86, 45%)
Corrente, Tony (13.2, 108, 64%)
Green, Scott (10.3, 88, 42%)
Hochuli, Ed (11.8, 89, 50%)
Leavy, Bill (12.1, 96, 43%)
McAulay, Terry (13.1, 104, 75%)
Morelli, Pete (10.0, 78, 36%)
Nemmers, Larry (10.9, 92, 67%)
Parry, John (12.9, 108, 67%)
Steratore, Gene (11.8, 91, 67%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.5, 79, 55%)
Winter, Ron (15.4, 114, 45%)


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