Saturday, December 01, 2007

NFL Referee Statistics (week 12, through games of November 26, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 12 (including games through November 26, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins is still a striking positive of 0.449. Refs who call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. A comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and the 2007 season so far suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a fairly positive 0.309 while the correlation for the home team's win rate is a pretty positive 0.393!

To see a graph of the scatter plot for 2006 to 2007 referees' home team win rate, try visiting:

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron extends to a commanding lead after Walt has only 9 accepted penalties in the Minnesota Vikings-New York Giants game:
Ron Winter (15.6, 50%)
Walt Anderson (14.5, 70%)
Terry McAulay (13.4, 73%)
Tony Corrente (13.3, 70%)

and at the bottom no major changes:
Scott Green (9.9, 36%)
Bill Carollo (9.7, 55%)
Pete Morelli (9.7, 30%)
Gerald Austin (9.3, 55%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay judge edges out Walt Anderson after the home New York Giants lose to the visiting Minnesota Vikings in Walt's week 12 game:
Terry McAulay (13.4, 73%)
Walt Anderson (14.5, 70%)
Tony Corrente (13.3, 70%)
John Parry, Gene Steratore, Larry Nemmers tied at 64%

And at the bottom, a home team actually won a game that Pete Morelli covered! This breaks the visiting team's 7-game winning streak in his games. The Buffalo Bills (5-6) could not beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) even though Peter Morelli was the referee for the game. Don't worry, though, Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams. The order of the universe is still intact, it seems.
Mike Carey (12.9, 45%)
Bill Leavy (12.1, 43%)
Scott Green (9.9, 36%)
Pete Morelli (9.7, 30%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, Walt Anderson, or Tony Corrente. If you like the visiting team, still hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Scott Green, Bill Leavy, and Mike Carey. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (14.5, 110, 70%)
Austin, Gerald (9.3, 84, 55%)
Boger, Jerome (11.2, 88, 60%)
Carey, Mike (12.9, 98, 45%)
Carollo, Bill (9.7, 74, 55%)
Coleman, Walt (11.7, 87, 50%)
Corrente, Tony (13.3, 105, 70%)
Green, Scott (9.9, 85, 36%)
Hochuli, Ed (11.8, 90, 55%)
Leavy, Bill (12.1, 96, 43%)
McAulay, Terry (13.4, 107, 73%)
Morelli, Pete (9.7, 75, 30%)
Nemmers, Larry (11.0, 93, 64%)
Parry, John (12.4, 99, 64%)
Steratore, Gene (12.1, 95, 64%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.4, 79, 50%)
Winter, Ron (15.6, 116, 50%)


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