Sunday, January 25, 2009

Terry McAulay and Super Bowl XLIII (Cardinals-Steelers, February 2009): Part One

Terry McAulay will be the head referee in Super Bowl XLIII between the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers on February 1, 2009.

For the first post, let's take a look at some basics for Terry McAulay:

Some general statistics: total penalties 11.2 (7th of 17 referees), total yards 89 (tied for 8th), average penalty yards per penalty 7.9 (7th), percent penalties against visiting team 49% (10th), total points 41.9 (12th), visiting team points 18.9 (14th), home team points 23 (tied for 10th).

By the way, he has one of the highest home-team win rates out of the 17 referees. In 2008, it was 67%, tied for second. In 2007, it was 75%, which was at or near the highest in 2007. Wonder which team in the Super Bowl would have more fan support to make it seem a bit like a home game.

Terry's games this season include the AFC second-round (the NFL calls it the divisional playoff games) where the Baltimore Ravens beat the Tennessee Titans with a 43-yard field goal on a drive where they snapped the ball after the play clock expired but the referee crew did not call a delay-of-game-penalty. Titans coach Jeff Fisher has called the mistake unacceptable.

The Steelers have the advantage of being more familiar with Terry's games. In week 1, the Steelers hosted the Texans and won 38-17 in a game that Terry McAulay covered.

In Terry McAulay's regular season games, the margin of victory was one of the closest to correlate to what was expected if you look at the won-loss record of the teams or if you look at the net points scored of the teams. Terry was 3rd of 17 referees at 0.420 correlation to the home team's margin of victory excluding the game covered. He was 4th at 0.571 correlation to the home team's won-loss advantage.

The correlation to which team won the game (ignoring the margin of victory) put Terry in the middle of the pack, 9th based on home team's margin of victory excluding the game covered and 11th based on home team's won-loss advantage.


Blogger mberenis said...

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