Tuesday, December 25, 2007

NFL Referee Statistics (after week 16, games of December 24, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 16 (including games through December 24, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins actually decreased a bit after dropping for two weeks. It dipped slightly from 0.247 to 0.234.

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron's huge lead whittles away by a little bit but he seems assured of winning the title this season:
Ron Winter (14.6, 43%)
Tony Corrente (13.4, 71%)
Walt Anderson (12.9, 57%)
Jerome Boger (12.7, 71%)

and at the bottom, Gerald has the title pretty much locked up too:
Jeff Triplette (10.3, 64%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 29%)
Bill Carollo (9.6, 60%)
Gerald Austin (8.7, 47%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay keeps his comfortable lead with yet another home-team victory:
Terry McAulay (11.9, 80%)
John Parry (12.1, 73%)
Tony Corrente (13.4, 71%)
Jerome Boger (12.7, 71%)

And at the bottom, a visiting team has yet again won in one of Peter Morelli's games. The New Orleans Saints are this week's team to run into the Morelli Curse. From the viewpoint of the home team in Peter Morelli's games, the season has gone WWLLLLLLLWWLLL (two wins, seven losses, two wins, and three losses so 4-10). Pete Morelli has the worst win-rate for home teams this season.
Ron Winter (14.6, 43%)
Mike Carey (11.9, 43%)
Bill Leavy (12.0, 40%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 29%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Tony Corrente, or John Boger. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Bill Leavy, Mike Carey, and Ron Winter. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Walt Anderson (12.9, 99, 57%)
Gerald Austin (8.7, 77, 47%)
Jerome Boger (12.7, 97, 71%)
Mike Carey (11.9, 89, 43%)
Bill Carollo (9.6, 70, 60%)
Walt Coleman (10.9, 82, 50%)
Tony Corrente (13.4, 108, 71%)
Scott Green (10.8, 93, 50%)
Ed Hochuli (12.3, 93, 60%)
Bill Leavy (12.0, 92, 40%)
Terry McAulay (11.9, 95, 80%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 77, 29%)
Larry Nemmers (10.6, 89, 64%)
John Parry (12.1, 100, 73%)
Gene Steratore (10.9, 84, 53%)
Jeff Triplette (10.3, 76, 64%)
Ron Winter (14.6, 106, 43%)

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