Saturday, December 22, 2007

NFL Ref Statistics (through week 15, after games of December 17, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 15 (including games through December 17, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins actually decreased a bit after dropping for two weeks. It slumped again from 0.247 to 0.227. Refs who generally call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

I'm doing extended analysis in looking for correlations between the 2006 referee statistics and the 2007 referee statistics to see if some trends hold up across seasons according to the particular referee...

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron extends his 0.9 lead up to 1.7 and pretty much has the season title locked:
Ron Winter (15.2, 38%)
Walt Anderson (13.5, 62%)
Tony Corrente (13.2, 69%)
Jerome Boger (12.4, 69%)

and at the bottom no changes:
Scott Green (10.5, 46%)
Bill Carollo (9.9, 57%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 31%)
Gerald Austin (8.8, 43%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay keeps his comfortable lead with yet another home-team victory:
Terry McAulay (12.1, 79%)
John Parry (12.2, 71%)
Tony Corrente (13.2, 69%)
Jerome Boger (12.4, 69%)

And at the bottom, a visiting team has yet again won in one of Peter Morelli's games. The New York Giants are this week's team to run into the Morelli Curse. From the viewpoint of the home team in Peter Morelli's games, the season has gone WWLLLLLLLWWLL (two wins, seven losses, two wins, and two losses so 4-9). Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams.
Bill Leavy (11.9, 44%)
Gerald Austin (8.8, 43%)
Ron Winter (15.2, 38%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 31%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Tony Corrente, or John Boger. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Ron Winter, Gerlad Austin, Bill Leavy. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (13.5, 102, 62%)
Austin, Gerald (8.8, 78, 43%)
Boger, Jerome (12.4, 94, 69%)
Carey, Mike (12.2, 92, 46%)
Carollo, Bill (9.9, 70, 57%)
Coleman, Walt (10.9, 83, 46%)
Corrente, Tony (13.2, 107, 69%)
Green, Scott (10.5, 90, 46%)
Hochuli, Ed (12.4, 93, 57%)
Leavy, Bill (11.9, 92, 44%)
McAulay, Terry (12.1, 96, 79%)
Morelli, Pete (9.8, 76, 31%)
Nemmers, Larry (10.6, 89, 64%)
Parry, John (12.2, 101, 71%)
Steratore, Gene (10.9, 85, 57%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.5, 79, 62%)
Winter, Ron (15.2, 111, 38%)


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