Saturday, December 15, 2007

NFL Referee Statistics (through week 14, December 10, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 14 (including games through December 10, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins actually decreased a bit after week 13's huge drop. It slumped from 0.278 to 0.247. Refs who generally call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. A comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and the 2007 season so far suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is pretty strong at 0.316 (up from 0.269) while the correlation for the home team's win rate jumped back up after last week's drop and is a strong 0.393 (up from 0.249)

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron slightly extends his lead over Walt:
Ron Winter (14.9, 42%)
Walt Anderson (14.0, 58%)
Tony Corrente (13.1, 67%)
Terry McAulay (12.8, 77%)

and at the bottom no changes:
Scott Green (10.5, 46%)
Bill Carollo (10.0, 54%)
Pete Morelli (10.0, 33%)
Gerald Austin (8.8, 46%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay keeps his comfortable lead with another home-team victory:
Terry McAulay (12.8, 77%)
John Parry (12.8, 69%)
Larry Nemmers (10.7, 69%)
with Tony Corrente and Jerome Boger tied at 67%

And at the bottom, a visiting team once again won in one of Peter Morelli's games. From the viewpoint of the home team in Peter Morelli's games, the season has gone WWLLLLLLLWWL (two wins, seven losses, two wins, and one more loss so 4-8). Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams.
Ron Winter (14.9, 42%)
Mike Carey (12.3, 42%)
Walt Coleman (11.5, 42%)
Pete Morelli (10.0, 33%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Gene Steratore, or Larry Nemmers. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Ron Winter, Mike Carey, and Walt Coleman. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (14.0, 105, 58%)
Austin, Gerald (8.8, 78, 46%)
Boger, Jerome (12.4, 94, 67%)
Carey, Mike (12.3, 94, 42%)
Carollo, Bill (10.0, 72, 54%)
Coleman, Walt (11.5, 87, 42%)
Corrente, Tony (13.1, 105, 67%)
Green, Scott (10.5, 90, 46%)
Hochuli, Ed (12.3, 93, 54%)
Leavy, Bill (11.8, 92, 50%)
McAulay, Terry (12.8, 102, 77%)
Morelli, Pete (10.0, 76, 33%)
Nemmers, Larry (10.7, 90, 69%)
Parry, John (12.8, 107, 69%)
Steratore, Gene (11.4, 88, 62%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.6, 78, 58%)
Winter, Ron (14.9, 109, 42%)


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