Saturday, January 05, 2008

NFL 2007 Referee Statistics (including all regular season games)

Here are the final NFL referee statistics for the 2007 regular season, including all regular season games:

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins as usual came out with a positive correlation -- it decreased a bit toward the end of the year but ended up with 0.216.

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron had a huge lead and kept the top spot to be the 2007 leader in penalties per game. Notice many of the referees who call lots of penalties also have a high win rate for home teams.
Ron Winter (14.3, 40%)
Tony Corrente (13.3, 73%)
Walt Anderson (12.7, 60%)
Jerome Boger (12.5, 73%)

and at the bottom, Gerald locked up the title and kept it to the end:
Jeff Triplette (10.6, 67%)
Bill Carollo (9.8, 63%)
Pete Morelli (9.7, 33%)
Gerald Austin (8.9, 50%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay kept his lead and home teams did the best in games where Terry was the referee:
Terry McAulay (12.1, 75%)
Tony Corrente (13.3, 73%)
Jerome Boger (12.5, 73%)
John Parry (12.1, 73%)

And at the bottom, Green Bay broke through the Peter Morelli curse by winning as a home team one of his games. The home teams went 5-10 in Peter's games this year, winning the first two, losing the next seven, winning two, losing three, and winning the last one.
Bill Leavy (12.1, 45%)
Ron Winter (14.3, 40%)
Mike Carey (11.8, 40%)
Pete Morelli (9.7, 33%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, Tony Corrente, Jerome Boger, and John Parry. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Bill Leavy, Ron Winter, and Mike Carey. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

And here is some end-of-year extra data for you -- in order are the following statistics for each referee -- penalties accepted per game, penalty yards per game, average yards per penalty, percent penalties called against visiting team, total points scored, visiting team points, home team points, home team win rate. Post a comment if you request other types of data or want any particular theory investigated or calculations run!
Anderson, Walt (12.7, 97, 7.6, 50%, 41.7, 20.3, 21.3, 60%)
Austin, Gerald (8.9, 80, 9.0, 50%, 45.4, 19.8, 25.6, 50%)
Boger, Jerome (12.5, 95, 7.6, 56%, 37.7, 15.7, 22.1, 73%)
Carey, Mike (11.8, 90, 7.6, 54%, 45.0, 23.5, 21.5, 40%)
Carollo, Bill (9.8, 72, 7.4, 54%, 40.2, 17.8, 22.4, 63%)
Coleman, Walt (10.7, 81, 7.6, 51%, 43.3, 22.3, 21.1, 47%)
Corrente, Tony (13.3, 105, 7.9, 53%, 43.1, 18.5, 24.5, 73%)
Green, Scott (10.7, 92, 8.6, 53%, 45.5, 24.1, 21.5, 53%)
Hochuli, Ed (12.4, 95, 7.7, 53%, 46.1, 19.9, 26.3, 63%)
Leavy, Bill (12.1, 94, 7.7, 56%, 41.5, 21.0, 20.5, 45%)
McAulay, Terry (12.1, 97, 8.1, 59%, 35.5, 15.9, 19.6, 75%)
Morelli, Pete (9.7, 77, 7.9, 55%, 47.7, 25.0, 22.7, 33%)
Nemmers, Larry (10.8, 90, 8.4, 51%, 43.7, 17.3, 26.4, 67%)
Parry, John (12.1, 100, 8.3, 51%, 43.8, 18.7, 25.1, 73%)
Steratore, Gene (10.7, 82, 7.6, 48%, 50.6, 25.3, 25.3, 50%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.6, 79, 7.4, 55%, 43.5, 18.2, 25.3, 67%)
Winter, Ron (14.3, 106, 7.4, 53%, 42.5, 21.3, 21.1, 40%)

3 Comments:

Anonymous tmd said...

Any chance you know where to find replay stats for each ref?

10:57 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would like to know the number of calls challenged (booth and coaches), and the percentage of calls reversed.

Also, if it can be done, how many times "12 men on the field" and reversed. Thanks

5:43 PM  
Anonymous refchat said...

Sorry, we are not tracking the replay challenge record of the officials. Last season, Mike Sando in Seattle was tracking them but since then he has moved over to work for ESPN. Check on google to see if someone is tracking them this year.

6:56 PM  

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