NFL Referee Statistics Before Week 8 (before November 1, 2009)

More data, but saving time by not going through all the categories like last time. Post a comment if you'd like a focus on any of the categories.

Here are NFL referee statistics to use in week 8 (use it for games starting November 1, 2009 because it includes data through week 7, games through October 26, 2009).

This is current as of October 31, 2009.

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...

• Highest: Mike Carey (83%), Scott Green (71%), a bunch at 67%
• Lowest: Ed Hochuli, Carl Cheffers, and Don Carey tied at 33%

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 14.5, 126, 8.7, 36.7, 50%
Jerome Boger, 14.7, 109, 7.4, 29.4, 43%
Don Carey, 12.2, 99, 8.1, 40.8, 33%
Mike Carey, 11.5, 95, 8.3, 56.2, 83%
Carl Cheffers, 10.8, 96, 8.8, 41.2, 33%
Walt Coleman, 12.5, 92, 7.3, 47.0, 50%
Tony Corrente, 12.2, 98, 8.0, 35.8, 67%
Scott Green, 12.6, 108, 8.6, 44.6, 71%
Ed Hochuli, 14.5, 124, 8.6, 44.0, 33%
Bill Leavy, 12.0, 95, 7.9, 35.8, 67%
Terry McAulay, 11.7, 100, 8.5, 39.7, 67%
Peter Morelli, 12.3, 108, 8.8, 37.2, 50%
John Parry, 12.7, 102, 8.1, 51.2, 50%
Alberto Riveron, 10.7, 89, 8.3, 52.3, 50%
Gene Steratore, 10.2, 77, 7.6, 50.5, 67%
Jeff Triplette, 11.8, 90, 7.7, 46.4, 60%
Ron Winter, 14.5, 116, 8.0, 47.0, 67%

NFL Referee Statistics before Week 7 (before October 25, 2009)

Yet more data, crunched just for you. NFL referee statistics to use in week 7 (use it for games starting October 25, 2009 because it includes data through week 6, games through October 19, 2009).

Give me some feedback in the comments -- any of these categories you don't care about? Does you find the data dump at the end helpful or not worth it every week?

This is current as of October 20, 2009.

Total accepted penalties per game

• Highest: Walt Anderson (15.6), Ron Winter (14.6), Ed Hochuli (14.5) [no changes from the previous week]
  
• Lowest: Alberto Riveron (10), Mike Carey (10.2), Bill Leavy (10.8) [Carl Cheffers falls from 2nd to 4th]
  

Average yards per accepted penalty (this may help you figure out whether a specific crew calls a higher percentage of large-yardage penalties -- defense backs and wide receivers might be very interested in case this reflects pass interference calls downfield)

• Highest: Peter Morelli (9.5), Alberto Riveron (8.9), Walt Anderson (8.9) [no changes]
  
• Lowest: Walt Coleman (7.3), Jerome Boger (7.4),Jeff Triplette (7.7) [Boger falls from 1st to 2nd]
  

Total points scored -- raw (some referees tend to favor both teams' offenses rather than both teams' defenses, so more total points will be scored -- or do other things that tend to increase the total points scored). No adjustments for the teams playing.

• Highest: Mike Carey (58.4), Alberto Riveron (54.6), Gene Steratore (53) [no changes]
  
• Lowest: Jerome Boger (27.36), Walt Anderson (33), Bill Leavy (34.2) [no changes]
  

Total points scored -- adjusted (referees may tend to favor higher-scoring games more than others). These figures are adjusted by accommodating the over-under betting line, which is a pre-game prediction that takes account of the teams involved.

• Highest: Mike Carey (+14.4), Gene Steratore (+12.7), Alberto Riveron (+12.7) [Steratore goes from 3rd to 2nd]
  
• Lowest: Jerome Boger (-14.5), Walt Anderson (-10.2), Bill Leavy (-8.2) [Boger goes from 2nd to 1st]
  

Home Team Net points -- adjusted (perhaps some referees favor home teams more and the home teams do better than expected, using the pre-game betting line as an unofficial estimate of how well the home teams were expected to do)

• Highest: Gene Steratore (+8.5), John Parry (+5.8), Scott Green (+5.7) [big changes with Steratore rocketing up to the top]
  
• Lowest: Ed Hochuli (-7.1), Walt Anderson (-6.1), Jeff Triplette (-4.6) [much closer race and Triplette creeps into the top 3]
  

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...

• Highest: Bill Leavy, Mike Carey, Gene Steratore, Terry McAulay (80%)
• Lowest: Ed Hochuli (33%), Walt Anderson, Don Carey, Carl Cheffers (40%)

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 15.6, 138, 8.9, 33.0, 40%
Jerome Boger, 14.5, 107, 7.4, 27.3, 50%
Don Carey, 12.0, 97, 8.1, 42.2, 40%
Mike Carey, 10.2, 86, 8.4, 58.4, 80%
Carl Cheffers, 10.8, 90, 8.3, 39.8, 40%
Walt Coleman, 12.5, 92, 7.3, 47.0, 50%
Tony Corrente, 12.2, 98, 8.0, 35.8, 67%
Scott Green, 12.8, 113, 8.8, 42.3, 67%
Ed Hochuli, 14.5, 124, 8.6, 44.0, 33%
Bill Leavy, 10.8, 88, 8.2, 34.2, 80%
Terry McAulay, 11.6, 102, 8.8, 41.8, 80%
Peter Morelli, 11.6, 110, 9.5, 35.8, 60%
John Parry, 12.4, 106, 8.6, 45.4, 60%
Alberto Riveron, 10.0, 89, 8.9, 54.6, 60%
Gene Steratore, 11.2, 86, 7.7, 53.0, 80%
Jeff Triplette, 11.8, 90, 7.7, 46.4, 60%
Ron Winter, 14.6, 121, 8.3, 47.6, 60%

NFL after week 6: Over/Under And Referees

After week 6 (through games of October 18), let's take a look at whether there is a correlation between NFL referees and the over/under result of the games.

I split up the season so far into two groups: the statistic for weeks 1-3 and the statistic for weeks 4-6. With this extremely limited data, let's see whether the distribution among the referees for weeks 1-3 have a correlation to the distribution for weeks 4-6.

The correlation for this limited data is 0.642. So there is a strong correlation with this very limited data. The referees who mainly had higher than expected scores in their games in weeks 1-3 for the most part also had high-scoring games in weeks 4-6. Those who had low-scoring games in weeks 1-3 kept up that trend in weeks 4-6.

Looking at this another way, if you bet that (a) the referees who had 100% over/under in weeks 1-3 would always be over for weeks 4-6 and (b) those who were 0% for weeks 1-3 would always be under in weeks 4-6, you would have gone 9-2! An 81% betting success rate over three weeks looks pretty good.

Maybe the people who set the over/under lines are not taking into account the referees in the game. Maybe this is a hidden advantage for those keeping track of it.

But watch out -- this analysis is based on only six weeks of games. Maybe it is just a statistical anomaly because of the small sample size. Or maybe there is a correlation in the early part of the season but referees have less influence over the points scored as a season progresses. Or maybe some referees will hear of this analysis and actively work to have less unconscious influence on the total points scored per game.

Post your comments about whether you think this is a statistical anomaly of no significance or if you suspect it might be a valid theory...

NFL Referee Over/Under Statistics (Week 6)

Let's take a look at the over/under statistics for the NFL referees as of the beginning of week 6. (This means we compiled the statistics through the end of week 5, including games through October 12, 2009). This list is as of the morning of October 18, before today's games take place.

Over/under is a target number that a casino will set for the combined score of the teams that are playing the game. People have two choices -- to wager that the combined score will be larger than the target number or that the combined score will be lower. This operates as a rough estimate of the expected total number of points that will be scored in the game. (It is not an exact estimate because casinos try to set a target number where an equal number of bets will be placed on each side, so the casino is estimating the views of the people wagering on the contest rather than what the casino really thinks will happen.)

Let's take a look at the over/under statistics of referees. Is it possible that some referees have an unconscious tendency to favor the offense of both teams (perhaps a personal interpretation of the rules or tending to get the ball ready more quickly so there are more plays run per game)? If a referee favors the offense of both teams, the referee is not intentionally trying to help one team more than the other. It'd be like an umpire in a baseball game who happens to have a generous strike zone and calls it equally for both teams.

Here are the statistics through week 5:
Mike Carey, +13.4, 100%
Gene Steratore, 10.6, 100%
Alberto Riveron, 12.7, 80%
Ron Winter, 2.7, 80%
John Parry, 4.3, 75%
Terry McAulay, 4.0, 75%
Jeff Triplette, 3.6, 75%
Walt Coleman, 8.9, 60%
Don Carey, 0.3, 60%
Carl Cheffers, 0.8, 50%
Scott Green, -1.9, 40%
Ed Hochuli, -3.1, 40%
Jerome Boger, -12.9, 30%
Peter Morelli, -2.9, 25%
Tony Corrente, -5.2, 20%
Bill Leavy, -10.0, 0%
Walt Anderson, -13.6, 0%

What does this table show? Referee name then average points greater than the over/under line, then the percent of games where the over would win. (We set a push at 50% for that game.)

Using a guess at which referee is doing which game, let's make some over/under predictions for this week. Wager on the over for the Baltimore Ravens-Minnesota Vikings game and the Tennessee Titans-New England Patriots game. Wager on the under for the Houston Texans-Cincinnati Bengals game and the Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers game.

If you play fantasy football, then if you are on the fence about whether to play an offensive player on the Ravens, Vikings, Titans, or Patriots rather than someone on the Texans, Bengals, Browns, or Steelers, you might account for the referee and tend for the ones playing in games where referees have had high-scoring games in the first 5 weeks of the NFL season...

And if it turns out there is no correlation between the referee and the points scored, all this analysis will be worthless! Try this out at your own risk!

Update: let's see how our experiment worked (or didn't):

• Ravens-Vikings: recommended the over. Yes, the over won.
• Titans-Patriots: recommended the over. Yes, the over won big-time.
• Texans-Bengals: recommended the under. Yes, the under won, barely.
• Browns-Steelers: recommended the under. Nope, the under lost.

So our small experiment went 3-1. If you bet the house, you still have a place to live in tonight. Post your comments on whether you think this is a theory worth exploring in the coming weeks or just a bizarre experiment with too small of a sample size.

NFL Referee Statistics Before Week 6 (as of October 17)

More data! NFL referee statistics to use in week 6 (use it for games starting October 18, 2009 because it includes data through week 5, games through October 12, 2009).

This is current as of October 12, 2009.

Total accepted penalties per game

• Highest: Walt Anderson (17.5), Ron Winter (14.6), Ed Hochuli (14.4)
• Lowest: Alberto Riveron (10), Carl Cheffers (10.3), Mike Carey (10.5)

Average yards per accepted penalty (this may help you figure out whether a specific crew calls a higher percentage of large-yardage penalties -- defense backs and wide receivers might be very interested in case this reflects pass interference calls downfield)

• Highest: Peter Morelli (9.6), Alberto Riveron (8.9), Walt Anderson (8.8)
• Lowest: Jerome Boger (6.9), Walt Coleman (7.4), Gene Steratore (7.6)

Total points scored -- raw (some referees tend to favor both teams' offenses rather than both teams' defenses, so more total points will be scored -- or do other things that tend to increase the total points scored). No adjustments for the teams playing.

• Highest: Mike Carey (57), Alberto Riveron (54.6), Gene Steratore (51.5)
• Lowest: Jerome Boger (27.6), Walt Anderson (31), Bill Leavy (31.5)

Total points scored -- adjusted (referees may tend to favor higher-scoring games more than others). These figures are adjusted by accommodating the over-under betting line, which is a pre-game prediction that takes account of the teams involved.

• Highest: Mike Carey (+13.4), Alberto Riveron (+12.7), Gene Steratore (+10.6)
• Lowest: Walt Anderson (-13.6), Jerome Boger (-12.9), Bill Leavy (-10.8)
  

Home Team Net points -- adjusted (perhaps some referees favor home teams more and the home teams do better than expected, using the pre-game betting line as an unofficial estimate of how well the home teams were expected to do)

• Highest: Scott Green (+9.7), Carl Cheffers (+8.8), John Parry (+8.3)
• Lowest: Ed Hochuli (-12), Walt Anderson (-7.4), Jerome Boger (-6.5)

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...

• Highest: Bill Leavy and Mike Carey (100%), Scott Green and Tony Corrente (80%)
• Lowest: Ed Hochuli (20%), Walt Anderson (25%), Jerome Boger and Don Carey (40%)

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 17.5, 154, 8.80, 31.0, 25%
Jerome Boger, 13.6, 94, 6.93, 27.6, 40%
Don Carey, 12.0, 97, 8.07, 42.2, 40%
Mike Carey, 10.5, 85, 8.07, 57.0, 100%
Carl Cheffers, 10.3, 80, 7.76, 42.3, 50%
Walt Coleman, 10.6, 78, 7.38, 50.6, 60%
Tony Corrente, 12.6, 99, 7.89, 39.0, 80%
Scott Green, 13.8, 117, 8.49, 39.4, 80%
Ed Hochuli, 14.4, 116, 8.07, 37.8, 20%
Bill Leavy, 10.8, 84, 7.84, 31.5, 100%
Terry McAulay, 10.8, 93, 8.67, 43.5, 75%
Peter Morelli, 12.8, 122, 9.59, 39.3, 50%
John Parry, 13.5, 116, 8.56, 44.5, 75%
Alberto Riveron, 10.0, 89, 8.88, 54.6, 60%
Gene Steratore, 11.0, 84, 7.64, 51.5, 75%
Jeff Triplette, 12.5, 96, 7.70, 47.3, 50%
Ron Winter, 14.6, 121, 8.26, 47.6, 60%

NFL Referee Statistics before Week 5 (October 11, 2009)

Another week, more data -- NFL referee statistics to use in week 5 (use it for games starting October 11, 2009 because it includes data through week 4, games through October 5, 2009).

This is current as of October 6, 2009. [Note, made some corrections to Walt Anderson's data on 10/13/09 -- thanks to 81Trucolors for pointing this out!]

Remember, all of these statistics are not proof that any NFL referee is cheating. It is perfectly normal that some referees call a game slightly differently than others. This can be an unconscious tendency that differs between referees, not necessarily any intentional bias. It should be perfectly fine to discuss the variations between referees -- I am not questioning whether the referees are cheating! Also, NFL teams track referee tendencies already, so why not help NFL fans with the same tracking...

Total accepted penalties per game

• Highest: Walt Anderson (18), Ed Hochuli (15), Scott Green (14.8)
• Lowest: Alberto Riveron (9), Terry McAulay (9.7), Mike Carey (10.5)

Average yards per accepted penalty (this may help you figure out whether a specific crew calls a higher percentage of large-yardage penalties -- defense backs and wide receivers might be very interested in case this reflects pass interference calls downfield)

• Highest: Walt Anderson (8.9), Peter Morelli (8.77), Ron Winter (8.74)
• Lowest: Jerome Boger (8.06), Carl Cheffers (7.41), Don Carey (7.46)

Total points scored -- raw (some referees tend to favor both teams' offenses rather than both teams' defenses, so more total points will be scored -- or do other things that tend to increase the total points scored). No adjustments for the teams playing.

• Highest: Mike Carey (57), Walt Coleman (54), Alberto Riveron (53.8)
• Lowest: Walt Anderson (28), Bill Leavy (31.5), Jerome Boger (32.3)

Total points scored -- adjusted (referees may tend to favor higher-scoring games more than others). These figures are adjusted by accommodating the over-under betting line, which is a pre-game prediction that takes account of the teams involved.

• Highest: Mike Carey (+15.8), Gene Steratore (+14.6), Alberto Riveron (+11.6). So Mike Carey comes out the highest, while Gene Steratore goes up from 4th on the raw list to 2nd on the adjusted list.
• Lowest: Peter Morelli (-8.8), Walt Anderson (-8) [corrected 10/13], Tony Corrente (-5.8). Tony Corrente moved from 6th lowest on the raw list to 3rd lowest on the adjusted list. Peter Morelli moved from 4th to 1st.
  

Home Team Net points -- adjusted (perhaps some referees favor home teams more and the home teams do better than expected, using the pre-game betting line as an unofficial estimate of how well the home teams were expected to do)

• Highest: Tony Corrente (+7.4), Carl Cheffers (+6.7), Terry McAulay (+5.5)
• Lowest: Jeff Triplette (-21), Ed Hochuli (-16.6), Jerome Boger (-14.9)

Home Team Win Rate (the much-watched rate that home teams win for particular referees) These are unadjusted numbers and I have not seen a correlation from season to season, so this might not be correlated to specific referees. But we can track it anyway...

• Highest: Bill Leavy and Mike Carey (100%), Tony Corrente, Ron Winter, Scott Green, Gene Steratore (75%)
• Lowest: Ed Hochuli (25%), Walt Anderson [corrected 10/13], Jeff Triplette, Carl Cheffers (33%)

Data Dump of Selected Statistics -- ok, a short table of selected statistics, copy this into a spreadsheet and you can sort to your heart's content. Post a comment if you find certain details or details interesting. Or if you find interesting trends in your analysis!

Referee (sorted by last name), Total accepted penalties per game, Total penalty yards per game, Average penalty yards per penalty, Total points per game, Home team win rate.
Walt Anderson, 18.0, 160, 8.9, 28, 33% (corrected 10/13/09)

Jerome Boger, 13.0, 92, 7.06, 32.3, 50%

Don Carey, 12.0, 90, 7.46, 40.8, 50%

Mike Carey, 10.5, 85, 8.07, 57.0, 100%

Carl Cheffers, 11.3, 84, 7.41, 44.0, 33%

Walt Coleman, 11.0, 86, 7.82, 54.0, 50%

Tony Corrente, 12.5, 101, 8.08, 36.5, 75%

Scott Green, 14.8, 126, 8.53, 39.0, 75%

Ed Hochuli, 15.0, 114, 7.60, 35.3, 25%

Bill Leavy, 10.8, 84, 7.84, 31.5, 100%

Terry McAulay, 9.7, 77, 8.00, 42.3, 67%

Peter Morelli, 11.7, 102, 8.77, 34.0, 67%

John Parry, 14.3, 119, 8.33, 42.3, 67%

Alberto Riveron, 9.0, 69, 7.67, 53.8, 50%

Gene Steratore, 11.0, 84, 7.64, 51.5, 75%

Jeff Triplette, 11.0, 90, 8.18, 46.0, 33%

Ron Winter, 13.3, 116, 8.74, 48.0, 75%

2009 NFL Referee Statistics for Week 4 (through October 3, 2009)

Our first analysis of the statistics for NFL referees in the 2009 NFL season. This is our week 4 report, meaning that we compile the statistics from week 1 through week 3, through the end of September 2009. Use this to think about the week 4 games (starting October 4).

The numbers for the first three weeks mean that some referees have only done 2 games so far. This is a very small sample size and I am not going to try to draw too many conclusions from them. But post a comment if you have some questions or ideas -- some basic numbers:

Total accepted penalties (correlation to home team win rate: -0.358)

• most: Walt Anderson (18.5)
• Ed Hochuli (17)
• Scott Green (16)
• least: Alberto Riveron (8.7)
• Mike Carey and Terry McAulay (9.7 each)

Percent penalties called against the visiting team: (correlation to home team win rate: -0.051)

• most: Peter Morelli (60%)
• Jeff Triplette (58%)
• John Parry (56%)
• least: Tony Corrente (35%)
• Don Carey (42%)
• Gene Steratore (43%)

Total points scored: (correlation to home team win rate: 0.162)

• most: Mike Carey (59)
• Alberto Riveron (53.7)
• Gene Steratore (51)
• least: Walt Anderson (28.5)
• Jerome Boger (28.7)
• Bill Leavy (30.7)

Total points scored compared to the game's expected points (using the betting over/under line). Correlation to home team rate: 0.266

• most: Mike Carey (+15.3) [tops on both lists]
• Gene Steratore (+11.8) [3rd on raw points scored, 2nd on this list]
• Alberto Riveron (+9.8) [2nd on raw points, 3rd on this list]
• least: Walt Anderson (-17) [the least ones are in the same order in raw points and this list]
  
• Jerome Boger (-10.7)
• Bill Leavy (-9)

Home team win rate:

• Mike Carey, Scott Green, Bill Leavy (100%)
• Carl Cheffers, Ed Hochuli, Jeff Triplette, Walt Anderson (0%)

And let's go to the tiebreaker -- the average points spread for home teams for these referees. Of the ones where the home team won each game, Scott Green is the best because home teams in his games were favored by only 1.2 points (5 for Mike Carey, 6 for Bill Leavy).

Of the ones where the home team lost each game, Ed Hochuli is best for visiting teams so far because in his games, home teams were favored by 4.2 points (-2.3 for Walt Anderson, -3.5 for Jeff Triplette, and -10 for Carl Cheffers).

Unusual correlation after very limited data: hmmm, some strange correlations with this very limited data. The correlation of the over-under line to the home team win rate is pretty negative, suggesting that when you expect a low-scoring game, this is very good for the home team generally. Looking game by game so far, the over-under line has an -0.237 correlation to the home team win rate and a -0.269 correlation to the amount of points that the home team scores more than the visiting team. Let's look at this again during the year...

Referee Roster Changes from 2008 to 2009

We start to look at the new NFL season and wonder which referees from the 2008 season are not head referees in the 2009 season. There are retirements every year, so changes are nothing unusual.

Let's take a look -- Bill Carollo (listed as William Carollo on the game reports) retired at the end of 2008 and became the director of officiating for the Big Ten Conference. Meanwhile, Don Carey is a new head referee in 2009 and he is the brother of NFL referee Mike Carey. So now we can't log the referees by last name -- gotta get the first names to distinguish the Carey brothers... let's see how the statistics look as the year progresses.