Saturday, November 15, 2008

NFL Referee Statistics: Correlations within the same season

Let's look for correlations within the same NFL season for NFL referee statistics. Let's line up the referees for their statistics from weeks 1-5 and then line them up for their statistics from weeks 6-10 and see if there are correlations between how they are distributed for weeks 1-5 and weeks 6-10. If there is a strong correlation, then it seems the order they were for their work from weeks 1-5 was a perfect predictor for how they would be ordered for their work in weeks 6-10. This analysis is not looking between statistics of different seasons (we're not checking the 2007 NFL referee statistics for this).

Strong correlations between weeks 1-5 and weeks 6-10 for:
Percent penalties against visiting teams (0.338)
Percent penalty yards against visiting teams (0.343)
Total points scored (0.219)
Total points scored by teh home team (0.253)
Penalties against the home team (0.112)

No correlation for a few categories:
Home team winning rate (0.036)
Total number of accepted penalties (0.009)
Penalties against the visiting team (-0.026)

A negative correlation for a few categories:
Points scored by the visiting team (-0.184)
Total penalty yards (-0.137)
Average yards per penalty (-0.130)

Intriguing or just a bunch of random statistics?


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