Patriots-Giants Week 17: Mike Carey Is The Referee

For the December 29, 2007 week 17 game between the Patriots and Giants, the referee crew is headed by Mike Carey. Let's take a look at his crew's statistics for the 2007 NFL season:

His games have slightly more points scored than you would expect for the teams involved (43.0 rather than 43.3) and the visiting teams have scored more points than the home teams, but in general the visiting teams in his games were stronger this season.

Visiting teams: scored 22.5 points where 22.5 points expected (4th highest among refs)
Home teams: scored 20.9 points where 20.5 points expected (3d lowest among refs)

Let's look at other categories:
Penalties per game (11.9 or middle of the pack), penalty yards per game (89, slightly less than average), average penalty yards per penalty (7.5, near the lowest of the refs so don't expect a large number of big-yardage pass interference calls).

For the home team's win rate, it is only at 43%, which ties Mike Carey for third-worst for home teams among the 17 referees. I guess this is a good sign for the Patriots if you believe some referees are better for home teams than others.

Looking at the season, he refereed the Patriots 48-27 win as visitors over the Cowboys in week 6. He has not done a Giants game this year. So, advantage Patriots.

In the 2006 season, by the way, he handled the Giants 42-30 loss while visiting the Seahawks in week 3. And the Patriots 35-0 victory while visiting the Packers in week 11. So maybe the Patriots have a slight advantage there, too?

Post a comment if you have any specific questions about Mike Carey...

Over/Under NFL Referee Rankings (after 2007 Week 16)

Here we analyze the total number of points scored (over/under) for each referee crew this season. Let's compare it to two items -- first, compare referees by the average total points scored in games they covered. Second, adjusted total points by comparing the average total points to what you would expect for the teams involved (using their average points per game season-long).

There is little change between the rankings of total points and adjusted total points at the top:
Gene Steratore (+7.0, 50.4)
Pete Morelli (+3.9, 47.7)
Scott Green (+3.6, 46.4)
Larry Nemmers (+2.7, 45.2)

The bottom is affected by using adjusted total points as opposed to total points -- Bill Leavy falls back (from third-lowest in total points to sixth-lowest in adjusted total points):
Terry McAulay (-8.3, 34.7)
Jerome Boger (-6.5, 37.5)
Walt Coleman (-2.1, 41.9)
Tony Corrente (-2.0, 41.1)
Bill Carollo (-1.3, 41.1)
Bill Leavy (-1.3, 39.8)

Bill Leavy had an unusually low expected total points this season after 16 weeks. At 41.1 total points expected, that was much lower than the next-lowest of 42.4 for Bill Carollo.

We also see an interesting correlation -- referees with large total points scored (or large adjusted total points) are in general worse for home teams! The correlation between total points per ref and home win-rate per ref is -0.535 and the correlation between adjusted total points and home win-rate is -0.540.

For example, Pete Morelli is the best for visiting teams through week 16 (home teams only win 29% of the games) and Pete also has a large total points per game (second largest at 47.7 per game). At the bottom, Terry McAulay is great for home teams (home teams win 80% of the games so far) and Terry has the lowest total points per game (lowest at 34.7 per game).

So, in general, if a referee tends to have low-scoring games, it's better for the home teams this season. What is the hypothesis there? We separately looked at how those who call more penalties tend to have home teams win more often.

Maybe the hypothesis is: if referees call penalties, there might be an unconscious bias to help out the home team such as perhaps from crowd pressure. And the way referees will affect the game with more penalties is to reduce the total number of points scored. So perhaps under this theory, less penalties means better for visiting teams and as a byproduct, more total points per game. On the other hand, more penalties means better for home teams and as a byproduct of the penalties, less total points per game. Post your comments to this speculative theory!

NFL Referee Statistics (after week 16, games of December 24, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 16 (including games through December 24, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins actually decreased a bit after dropping for two weeks. It dipped slightly from 0.247 to 0.234.

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron's huge lead whittles away by a little bit but he seems assured of winning the title this season:
Ron Winter (14.6, 43%)
Tony Corrente (13.4, 71%)
Walt Anderson (12.9, 57%)
Jerome Boger (12.7, 71%)

and at the bottom, Gerald has the title pretty much locked up too:
Jeff Triplette (10.3, 64%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 29%)
Bill Carollo (9.6, 60%)
Gerald Austin (8.7, 47%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay keeps his comfortable lead with yet another home-team victory:
Terry McAulay (11.9, 80%)
John Parry (12.1, 73%)
Tony Corrente (13.4, 71%)
Jerome Boger (12.7, 71%)

And at the bottom, a visiting team has yet again won in one of Peter Morelli's games. The New Orleans Saints are this week's team to run into the Morelli Curse. From the viewpoint of the home team in Peter Morelli's games, the season has gone WWLLLLLLLWWLLL (two wins, seven losses, two wins, and three losses so 4-10). Pete Morelli has the worst win-rate for home teams this season.
Ron Winter (14.6, 43%)
Mike Carey (11.9, 43%)
Bill Leavy (12.0, 40%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 29%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Tony Corrente, or John Boger. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Bill Leavy, Mike Carey, and Ron Winter. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Walt Anderson (12.9, 99, 57%)
Gerald Austin (8.7, 77, 47%)
Jerome Boger (12.7, 97, 71%)
Mike Carey (11.9, 89, 43%)
Bill Carollo (9.6, 70, 60%)
Walt Coleman (10.9, 82, 50%)
Tony Corrente (13.4, 108, 71%)
Scott Green (10.8, 93, 50%)
Ed Hochuli (12.3, 93, 60%)
Bill Leavy (12.0, 92, 40%)
Terry McAulay (11.9, 95, 80%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 77, 29%)
Larry Nemmers (10.6, 89, 64%)
John Parry (12.1, 100, 73%)
Gene Steratore (10.9, 84, 53%)
Jeff Triplette (10.3, 76, 64%)
Ron Winter (14.6, 106, 43%)

NFL Referees and Points Per Game

Let's take a look at points per game by referee in the 2007 NFL season so far. Do you think this statistic has any correlation to the rate that the home team wins? Do you think it matters which referee you have?

We can't yet answer the second question, but as far as the first one -- yes, there is a correlation between the total number of points per game and the rate the home team wins. In general, if you have a referee who usually has low scoring games, the referee will usually have home teams win more often.

There is an 0.425 correlation for that. (The correlation to the points scored by the visiting team is an obvious -0.716 because of course if thevisiting team scores less, the home team wins more often. For the points scored by the home team, the correlation is only a mild 0.206)

Here is the breakdown, with the following statistics: referee, total points per game, average visiting team points, and average home team points). This is through week 15 of the 2007 NFL season:

Steratore, Gene (48.2, 22.4, 25.8)
Green, Scott (45.6, 25.2, 20.4)
Morelli, Pete (44.9, 23.1, 21.8)
Austin, Gerald (44.7, 18.8, 25.9)
Nemmers, Larry (44.0, 16.7, 27.4)
Parry, John (43.8, 18.5, 25.3)
Winter, Ron (42.7, 21.2, 21.5)
Carey, Mike (42.2, 21.1, 21.1)
Hochuli, Ed (41.7, 17.5, 24.1)
Triplette, Jeff (40.6, 17.7, 22.8)
Carollo, Bill (40.4, 18.2, 22.2)
Coleman, Walt (40.2, 19.8, 20.5)
Corrente, Tony (40.0, 16.6, 23.5)
Anderson, Walt (39.7, 18.3, 21.5)
Leavy, Bill (36.4, 17.4, 19.0)
McAulay, Terry (35.1, 14.7, 20.4)
Boger, Jerome (34.7, 14.7, 20.0)

Finding Referee Trends That Hold Up Across Seasons

NFL referees have a variation among them for each statistical category. Can we look at the variations to see whether any of the variations appear not only in the 2006 season but also the 2007 season? If we can find a variation that holds up across two seasons, it suggests that the characteristic is something that depends on the particular referee and is not just by chance.

One way to try to look into this is to see if there is a correlation between a particular referee's 2006 statistic and his 2007 statistic in the same category. For example, if you chart out each referee's average number of penalties per game in 2006 and then compare it ref-by-ref to each referee's numbers for 2007, you can find out the correlation if you plotted them on a graph.

Let's look for correlations across the 2006 and 2007 seasons in a variety of categories:

Strong correlations (suggesting this does depend on the referee) -- comparing the full 2006 season to the 2007 season through week 15 for the referees who worked in both 2006 and 2007:
Average yards per penalty (0.544)
Number of penalties for the home team (0.407)
Total penalty yards (0.378)
Number of penalties (0.364)
Yards per penalty for the home team (0.364)
Yards per penalty for the visiting team (0.361)
% of games where the visiting team had more penalties called (0.332)

Weak correlations (suggesting this does not depend on the referee):
Difference in number of penalties for the visiting and home teams (-0.170)
Percent of penalties called on the visiting team (-0.158)
Home team win percentage (-0.039)

Please post your thoughts on whether you think this attempt to find correlations across seasons is some indicator of whether a characteristic may depend on the particular referee!

NFL Ref Statistics (through week 15, after games of December 17, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 15 (including games through December 17, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins actually decreased a bit after dropping for two weeks. It slumped again from 0.247 to 0.227. Refs who generally call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

I'm doing extended analysis in looking for correlations between the 2006 referee statistics and the 2007 referee statistics to see if some trends hold up across seasons according to the particular referee...

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron extends his 0.9 lead up to 1.7 and pretty much has the season title locked:
Ron Winter (15.2, 38%)
Walt Anderson (13.5, 62%)
Tony Corrente (13.2, 69%)
Jerome Boger (12.4, 69%)

and at the bottom no changes:
Scott Green (10.5, 46%)
Bill Carollo (9.9, 57%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 31%)
Gerald Austin (8.8, 43%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay keeps his comfortable lead with yet another home-team victory:
Terry McAulay (12.1, 79%)
John Parry (12.2, 71%)
Tony Corrente (13.2, 69%)
Jerome Boger (12.4, 69%)

And at the bottom, a visiting team has yet again won in one of Peter Morelli's games. The New York Giants are this week's team to run into the Morelli Curse. From the viewpoint of the home team in Peter Morelli's games, the season has gone WWLLLLLLLWWLL (two wins, seven losses, two wins, and two losses so 4-9). Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams.
Bill Leavy (11.9, 44%)
Gerald Austin (8.8, 43%)
Ron Winter (15.2, 38%)
Pete Morelli (9.8, 31%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Tony Corrente, or John Boger. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Ron Winter, Gerlad Austin, Bill Leavy. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (13.5, 102, 62%)
Austin, Gerald (8.8, 78, 43%)
Boger, Jerome (12.4, 94, 69%)
Carey, Mike (12.2, 92, 46%)
Carollo, Bill (9.9, 70, 57%)
Coleman, Walt (10.9, 83, 46%)
Corrente, Tony (13.2, 107, 69%)
Green, Scott (10.5, 90, 46%)
Hochuli, Ed (12.4, 93, 57%)
Leavy, Bill (11.9, 92, 44%)
McAulay, Terry (12.1, 96, 79%)
Morelli, Pete (9.8, 76, 31%)
Nemmers, Larry (10.6, 89, 64%)
Parry, John (12.2, 101, 71%)
Steratore, Gene (10.9, 85, 57%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.5, 79, 62%)
Winter, Ron (15.2, 111, 38%)

NFL Referee Statistics (through week 14, December 10, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 14 (including games through December 10, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins actually decreased a bit after week 13's huge drop. It slumped from 0.278 to 0.247. Refs who generally call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. A comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and the 2007 season so far suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is pretty strong at 0.316 (up from 0.269) while the correlation for the home team's win rate jumped back up after last week's drop and is a strong 0.393 (up from 0.249)

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron slightly extends his lead over Walt:
Ron Winter (14.9, 42%)
Walt Anderson (14.0, 58%)
Tony Corrente (13.1, 67%)
Terry McAulay (12.8, 77%)

and at the bottom no changes:
Scott Green (10.5, 46%)
Bill Carollo (10.0, 54%)
Pete Morelli (10.0, 33%)
Gerald Austin (8.8, 46%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay keeps his comfortable lead with another home-team victory:
Terry McAulay (12.8, 77%)
John Parry (12.8, 69%)
Larry Nemmers (10.7, 69%)
with Tony Corrente and Jerome Boger tied at 67%

And at the bottom, a visiting team once again won in one of Peter Morelli's games. From the viewpoint of the home team in Peter Morelli's games, the season has gone WWLLLLLLLWWL (two wins, seven losses, two wins, and one more loss so 4-8). Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams.
Ron Winter (14.9, 42%)
Mike Carey (12.3, 42%)
Walt Coleman (11.5, 42%)
Pete Morelli (10.0, 33%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Gene Steratore, or Larry Nemmers. If you like the visiting team, hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Ron Winter, Mike Carey, and Walt Coleman. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (14.0, 105, 58%)
Austin, Gerald (8.8, 78, 46%)
Boger, Jerome (12.4, 94, 67%)
Carey, Mike (12.3, 94, 42%)
Carollo, Bill (10.0, 72, 54%)
Coleman, Walt (11.5, 87, 42%)
Corrente, Tony (13.1, 105, 67%)
Green, Scott (10.5, 90, 46%)
Hochuli, Ed (12.3, 93, 54%)
Leavy, Bill (11.8, 92, 50%)
McAulay, Terry (12.8, 102, 77%)
Morelli, Pete (10.0, 76, 33%)
Nemmers, Larry (10.7, 90, 69%)
Parry, John (12.8, 107, 69%)
Steratore, Gene (11.4, 88, 62%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.6, 78, 58%)
Winter, Ron (14.9, 109, 42%)

NFL Fines Three Baltimore Ravens for Criticizing Officials

The NFL fined Samari Rolle, Chris McAlister, and Derrick Mason $15,000 each for publicly questioning the integrity of the officiating in the game between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens.

Coach Brian Billick went even further in gagging NFL players and any commentary about how well the referees performed -- he talked a number of times to his team "about not speaking publicly about any unhappiness we have with the officials."

If the NFL, NFL coaches, and NFL players have a gag rule to prevent them from saying anything about NFL referees, then it is up to the fans and sports writers to comment on the referees!

Referees are human beings and just like players, sometimes they have good days and sometimes they unintentionally have a bad game. That's not cheating, that's just being a human being and doing better some games than others. Why aren't sports writers and journalists commenting on the referees and how they are doing? Right now, many sports writers depend on the coaches and players to give quotes and lead what they will mirror in their stories. But it's clear the NFL is gagging everyone from saying a single word about the referees, so it's up to the writers to take some initiative and comment on them without prompting from the players or coaches.

People who didn't have a chance to watch the game would like to see some opinionated, fair explanation of what happened. If someone makes a sensational catch, the article should say it was a spectacular catch and not just report the bland fact of "completion for 25 yards." Same for if a player makes a terrible play, tell us the player dropped an easy catch as opposed to a very bland statement of "pass attempted fell incomplete" with no explanation. And the same for the referees -- if a referee makes an obviously bad call, tell us what happened and say it was a bad call as opposed to saying nothing at all.

I am not saying that writers should speculate about whether referees are trying to cheat. When it comes to the players, if someone drops an easy catch, writers should not be saying that the player was cheating and trying to lose. Same for referees -- you can say that a referee made a bad call without suggesting that the referee is actually cheating and trying to make either team lose.

If the NFL is gagging players from giving quotes on what actually happened on the field, it's up to the writers to earn their money and actually write about what they saw. Otherwise, fire them and get better writers...

NFL Referee Statistics (after week 13, through December 3, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 13 (including games through December 3, 2007):

Week 13 was unusual for a few reasons -- many referees went somewhat against the trend for home team wins and penalties called for the season. Let's take a look:

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins dropped by quite a bit from 0.449 down to 0.278! Refs who generally call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. A comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and the 2007 season so far suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a fairly positive at 0.269 (but down from 0.309) while the correlation for the home team's win rate took a big drop this week and is now a somewhat positive 0.249 (a big drop from last week's 0.393!)

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron's comfortable lead starts to slip a little bit but is still fairly comfortable:
Ron Winter (15.4, 45%)
Walt Anderson (14.7, 64%)
Tony Corrente (13.2, 64%)
Terry McAulay (13.1, 75%)

and at the bottom no major changes:
Scott Green (10.3, 42%)
Bill Carollo (10.2, 58%)
Pete Morelli (10.0, 36%)
Gerald Austin (8.7, 50%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay takes a comfortable lead at the top with a logjam below:
Terry McAulay (13.1, 75%)
John Parry (12.9, 67%)
Gene Steratore (11.8, 67%)
Larry Nemmers (10.9, 67%)

And at the bottom, a home team for the second straight week actually won a game that Pete Morelli covered! In Pete's games the home team won the first two games this season, lost the next seven(!) and now have won the last two. Scott Green had a chance to take over the bottom spot but the home team won in his game, also. Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams. The order of the universe is still intact, it seems.
Bill Leavy (12.1, 43%)
Mike Carey (12.3, 43%)
Scott Green (10.3, 42%)
Pete Morelli (10.6, 36%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, John Parry, Gene Steratore, or Larry Nemmers. If you like the visiting team, still hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Scott Green, Bill Leavy, and Mike Carey. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (14.7, 111, 64%)
Austin, Gerald (8.7, 79, 50%)
Boger, Jerome (12.1, 94, 64%)
Carey, Mike (12.3, 94, 42%)
Carollo, Bill (10.2, 74, 58%)
Coleman, Walt (11.7, 86, 45%)
Corrente, Tony (13.2, 108, 64%)
Green, Scott (10.3, 88, 42%)
Hochuli, Ed (11.8, 89, 50%)
Leavy, Bill (12.1, 96, 43%)
McAulay, Terry (13.1, 104, 75%)
Morelli, Pete (10.0, 78, 36%)
Nemmers, Larry (10.9, 92, 67%)
Parry, John (12.9, 108, 67%)
Steratore, Gene (11.8, 91, 67%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.5, 79, 55%)
Winter, Ron (15.4, 114, 45%)

Controversial Referees in the Baltimore Ravens-New England Patriots Game

It seems like the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens are in a bunch of games with controversial referee calls. This time, the Monday night game between them on December 3, 2007. (The Patriots had some controversial calls in a game against the Indianapolis Colts and the Ravens had a controversial field goal decision in a game with the Cleveland Browns.)

Examples include questions about:

• Baltimore cornerback Samari Rolle said that head linesman Phil McKinnely (number 110) called Samari Rolle "boy" several times, which angered Baltimore linebacker Bart Scott.
• New England's Tom Brady was quoted after the game as saying "a lot of questionable calls" about the game.
• Baltimore's Willis McGahee was quoted after the game as saying "we get some bogus calls."
• In the fourth quarter, the referees called defensive holding on Baltimore safety Jamaine Winborne to continue the Patriots's winning drive. Baltimore's Chris McAlister qs quoted as questioning that penalty call, saying "It's hard to go out there and play the Patriots and the refs at the same time."
  
• When Baltimore safety Ed Reed intercepted a pass near the end of the second quarter, the referees did not call pass interference against the defender who had reached out to Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker, the intended receiver on the play.

One of my questions is why the journalists who are writing stories about the game aren't analyzing the referee calls to explain whether they think the calls were good or bad. It is the easy way out just to quote players' opinions about what happened. Shouldn't the writers offer their own opinion about what happened on the field, especially for the readers who did not have a chance to watch the game on tv?

A big problem with just quoting players and not offering their own opinion is that many sports leagues including the NFL will penalize players, coaches, and owners for criticizing the referees. Why would journalists rely on quotes from people who have a gag rule that prevents them from sharing their complaints (without risking a fine, of course).

The way that journalists fail to cover the performance of the referees unless the players offer complaints is a big reason that players should not be penalized for commenting on how the referees performed.

Please post your comments on either how the referees did in the game or on whether it seems unfair that journalists rarely offer their own opinion about how well the referees performed, preferring instead just to repeat one or two player quotes.

Later, I will try to look into how Walt Anderson's referee crew's performance this year compares statistically with the other referee crews. His crew is known for being near the top this season in penalties per game, penalty yards per game, and (strangely) the home team's rate of winning games. Walt Anderson's crew was pretty much in the middle of the pack in 2006 for penalties per game.

NFL Referee Statistics (week 12, through games of November 26, 2007)

Here are the updated NFL referee statistics after week 12 (including games through November 26, 2007):

Possible relationship between the number of penalties called and the rate the home team wins for a particular referee. The strong correlation between the number of penalties per game and the rate the home team wins is still a striking positive of 0.449. Refs who call more penalties are more likely to have the home team win.

Possible relationship between the referee who calls the game and how many penalties there are and the rate the home team wins the game. One way to check on whether the referee has a relationship to how many penalties are called or the rate the home team wins is to compare those statistics in 2007 with the same statistics for those referees in 2006. Then to see if there is some correlation between the 2006 rates and the 2007 rates for those referees. A comparison of those referees with stats in 2006 and the 2007 season so far suggests there is a relation between the ref and penalties called or home team win-rate. The correlation for penalties called is a fairly positive 0.309 while the correlation for the home team's win rate is a pretty positive 0.393!

To see a graph of the scatter plot for 2006 to 2007 referees' home team win rate, try visiting:
http://www.swivel.com/graphs/show/24959489

Referees by penalties accepted per game (followed by home win rate):
Ron extends to a commanding lead after Walt has only 9 accepted penalties in the Minnesota Vikings-New York Giants game:
Ron Winter (15.6, 50%)
Walt Anderson (14.5, 70%)
Terry McAulay (13.4, 73%)
Tony Corrente (13.3, 70%)

and at the bottom no major changes:
Scott Green (9.9, 36%)
Bill Carollo (9.7, 55%)
Pete Morelli (9.7, 30%)
Gerald Austin (9.3, 55%)

Referees by home win-rate: if you believe the referee has some influence (perhaps an unintentional tendency) on whether the home team wins, then use this list. Here's the list, again with the penalties per game followed by the home team's win-rate. Terry McAulay judge edges out Walt Anderson after the home New York Giants lose to the visiting Minnesota Vikings in Walt's week 12 game:
Terry McAulay (13.4, 73%)
Walt Anderson (14.5, 70%)
Tony Corrente (13.3, 70%)
John Parry, Gene Steratore, Larry Nemmers tied at 64%

And at the bottom, a home team actually won a game that Pete Morelli covered! This breaks the visiting team's 7-game winning streak in his games. The Buffalo Bills (5-6) could not beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) even though Peter Morelli was the referee for the game. Don't worry, though, Pete Morelli (who had the worst win-rate for home teams in 2006 for the refs also working in 2007) still has the worst win-rate for home teams. The order of the universe is still intact, it seems.
Mike Carey (12.9, 45%)
Bill Leavy (12.1, 43%)
Scott Green (9.9, 36%)
Pete Morelli (9.7, 30%)

So, if you like the home team, hope for Terry McAulay, Walt Anderson, or Tony Corrente. If you like the visiting team, still hope for Pete Morelli but also good are Scott Green, Bill Leavy, and Mike Carey. Of course, this is only if you think particular referee crews are better for home teams than others.

Here is the information, alphabetically, with total penalties, total yards, and home win-rate:
Anderson, Walt (14.5, 110, 70%)
Austin, Gerald (9.3, 84, 55%)
Boger, Jerome (11.2, 88, 60%)
Carey, Mike (12.9, 98, 45%)
Carollo, Bill (9.7, 74, 55%)
Coleman, Walt (11.7, 87, 50%)
Corrente, Tony (13.3, 105, 70%)
Green, Scott (9.9, 85, 36%)
Hochuli, Ed (11.8, 90, 55%)
Leavy, Bill (12.1, 96, 43%)
McAulay, Terry (13.4, 107, 73%)
Morelli, Pete (9.7, 75, 30%)
Nemmers, Larry (11.0, 93, 64%)
Parry, John (12.4, 99, 64%)
Steratore, Gene (12.1, 95, 64%)
Triplette, Jeff (10.4, 79, 50%)
Winter, Ron (15.6, 116, 50%)